Investments in times volatility and elections: what are the winners and how the market is covered

The Volatility in the exchange market It began at the end of June and deepened in the second week of July, after the end of the Lefi. That dynamic led the economic team to respond with rates of rates and the Central Bank increased lace to absorb surplus liquidity. This Monday, finally, the Government managed to capture all the weights in the hands of the banks, and the money market – which came to operate with rates close to 80% – could begin to rearrange.

The long tension month left Doubts among the City actors For abrupt maneuvers, which surprised by the turn in monetary policy. But they also left a certainty: in the previous electoral, everything you need – and more – will be done to contain the dollar. In addition, this turbulence period allowed to see what investments they managed to position themselves as winners And which are preparing to mark the court in the next three months.

What were the winning investments in the midst of volatility

According to the financial advisor Gastón Lentinithe great winners of this last time were the ciones and, secondly, the LECAPS, who “are yielding almost double what inflation marks.” To take dimension, the LEPAPS expiring until November currently a TNA around 50%.

However, Lentini warns that, beyond the official strategy of absorbing pesos of the market, There are investors who were not yet covered and that could seek protection against an eventual exchange jump after the elections.

In view of the elections of the province of Buenos Aires, which are going to mark a first thermometer of the level of support for the government, Lentini remarked that “for that more conservative investor, which will not need liquidity in the short term and seeks coverage, dollarize through sovereign bonds such as the GD29 or the Boppreals are interesting, since today they pay between 8% and 13%,” he said.

It is important to point out that Sovereign bonds in dollars resisted volatility: the Global and the Bonares They accumulate in August an gain of around 2.5%. During the last week, Hard Dollar They rose between 1% and 2%, showing stability against exchange rate volatility and peso rates.

Lentini also recommended that conservative investors seeking coverage could be dollarized through bonds such as the GD29 or the BOPREALESthat today yield between 8% and 13%.

What to do with the weights in the next three months

In the world pesos, according to Lentini, bonds Cer and the Common funds adjusted by CER (inflation) They appear as attractive alternatives, offering two -digit yields above inflation. Currently, these bonds are yielding Cer +26.19% for the 2025 section, while for longer terms, for example at 2027, they are already around Cer +17%.

This recommendation becomes strength after the July inflation data, which marked 1.9%, and the expectation that the monthly CPI is around 2% in the next three months.

In this context, the discussion among investors focuses on what is the most: Fixed Rate, Cer or Tamaras reflected in the latest report of GMA Capital, looking at an investment horizon of three months.

The new tamar are seen as a bet that the cost of money will remain high. For example, the tamar bonus with expiration to November currently discounts a rate close to 3.5% monthly, below the recent average of 3.8%, but above the 2.8% recorded before the end of the Lefis.

Medium/long term projections

By June 2026, the election between instruments will depend on the real rate (Difference between nominal rate and inflation):

• If the real rate is high, the Dual bonds (TTJ26) would be the most attractive.

• If the real rate is low, the bonds Cer (TZX26) would offer better performance adjusted by inflation.

With the Expectation put in the provincial elections Already waiting for a rearrangement of fees, investors set a strategy for their investment portfolios that combine pesos and dollars.