The British CPI accelerated to 3.8% year -on -year in July, above the expected, which reinforces the expectations that the Bank of England maintain a more restrictive posture and postpone a rate cut.
The British inflation again in July more than expected, with a Year -on -year IPC of 3.8%compared to 3.7% expected, while the underlying index was also 3.8%. The data reduces the probabilities of a rate cut in November by the Bank of England, which provides for a new inflation peak around 4% in the coming months.
He Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United Kingdom in July a 0.1% monthlyagainst the 0.1% fall anticipated by consensus, which led the year -on -year rate to the 3.8%a tenth above what was expected.
The underlying IPC, which excludes fresh food and energy, also stood in 3.8% year -on -yearexceeding the 3.7%forecast. In parallel, the Retail price index A advance 0.4% monthlyquadruplying the planned 0.1%, and brought interannual inflation to the 4.8%from 4.4% of the previous month.
For Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote Bank analyst, the rebound “further reduces the probability that the Bank of England cuts the types in November.” According to the expert, the pound sterling reacted up after the publication of the data, discounting that the monetary authority could maintain a more restrictive position, in line with inflationary risks and recent positive surprises in growth and production.
New European Central Bank SSS STASE 20.jpg headquarters
The detail of the Inflation Index in the United Kingdom
Part of the difference with the Inflation of other countries reflects the way in which energy prices and other public services are regulated in the United Kingdom. The strong increases in public services invoices in April have driven the comparisons of year -on -year inflation. The relatively close labor market of the United Kingdom, which according to economists has become more rigid from Brexit, is also pressing prices.
ANDl salary growth in the United Kingdom has slowed down, but around 5% is too high for the BOE He feels comfortable with the inflation of consumer prices quickly returns to 2%.
In addition, entrepreneurs say that a tax rise in April and a large increase in the minimum wage are forcing them to raise prices.
Wednesday’s data showed that the largest taxpayer to increase inflation in July was transport, in particular air rates. The prices of food and non -alcoholic beverages – which, according to the Bank of England, greatly influence public opinion on the perspectives of inflation – rose 4.9% compared to the previous year, the largest rise since February 2024.
Source: Ambito
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