In the last tenders, the treasure validated very high rates to contain the dollar and sustain the decline in inflation, but this brings a new cost: a higher expense in debt interest.
The latest tender tenders validated very high rates to avoid a exchange rate and sustain the deflation process. But that strategy brings a new consequence, in addition to the brake on the activity: a strong increase in interest expenditure. This scenario, in turn, complicates the official goal of reducing the fiscal deficit. In that framework, Scope compiled different City reports that they estimate What will be the extra cost that the Treasury must face For this dynamic.
The first one is Balances And to do it, he compiled how The Treasury increased the monthly effective rates (TEM) of the shortest LECAPS. Thus, they explained that averaged 2.7% in June, rose to 3.3% in July and 3.9% so far in August. “To take notion of the magnitude of this higher financing cost for the Treasury, if we add the instruments at a fixed rate awarded in the primary tenders of July 16 and 29, and of August 13, The rate rise implies that $ 1.3 billion (which is comparable to 0.13% of GDP) is paid between August 2025 and February 2026 (0.1% of GDP only in 2025), “they explained.
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But the extra costs that the Treasury is facing for the rise of rates will continue to increase since, as is speculated in the City, the current ones rates levels would remain at least to the legislative elections. Therefore, from this consultant, they did the following analysis: Yes There are 32 billion maturities only from Lecaps until the end of October In the hands of the private sector and banks, and a rate differential similar to the average of the last tender is projected (1.77% percentage points more against the rate of July 10, 2025) and a 90% rollover, The financial cost of the rates rise would climb $ 2.6 billion (0.27% of GDP), an amount similar to the fiscal cost of the emergency law in disability.
First August tender: the alarm signal that began to sound
If we focus only on the first tender of the August Treasury in which The treasure awarded $ 9.15 billion compared to maturities for $ 14.98 billion It will result in the rollover was only 61.07%, so, to cover the remnant, The treasure had to use $ 5.8 billion of its deposits in the BCRA, and then announce a new rise of lace and an extra tender to continue the absorption of liquidity.
These data lit the city alarm signals and explained it from Cohen: “All this suggests that the bullish pressure on rates will continue, which will inexorably impact public accounts – adding the burden of interests – And in the activity, while contributing to exchange stability, promoting the carry trade and discouraging imports. “
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After this tender, from Facimexthey also did its projection on the increase in the cost of treasure financing. “When comparing the cutting rates of instruments at a fixed rate in the last two tenders against the bidding prior to Lefis disarmament, We estimate that the rate rise generated an extra capitalization of debt (fiscal cost below the line) of 0.30% of GDP in annualized terms (0.15% of GDP each tender). To dimension your magnitude, The annualized fiscal cost of the last two tenders already exceeded the annualized fiscal cost of the decline in retentions (0.23% of GDP) “they explained.
How was the evolution of capitalizable interests
According to data from the Congress Budget Office (OPC), In the first six months of 2025 the capitalization of interests of the Lecaps in the hands of the Treasury was $ 30 billion. This is equivalent to 1.5% of GDP, according to the latest staff report published by the IMF.
A report by the InveqC consultant, based on the last IMF report, highlighted a key fact: The agency estimated the capitalizable interests that are not computed in the official fiscal result. If you are incorporated, The fiscal balance would have been deficient in 1.2% of GDP, instead of 0.3% overlapped, accumulating a red of 1.5% of GDP between January and May.
Source: Ambito
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