He Government not to put Patches, one behind the other, to try Balance rates and From the banking sector, patience seems to have come to an end. This week, the president of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausilihe had to listen to complaints from the main entities and He promised to make more flexibleat least in part, The hooded lace system, of which the volume already exceeds the circulating.
At the same time, from the City the warnings are clear, this level of rates will not only bring A brake on activitybut also will increase the financial cost of debt And his correlation will be what It will affect fiscal goals.
Luis Caputo and Santiago Bausili: one week for oblivion
Monday was carried out An emergency tender destined to reabsorb the weights that were loose by the low roll-over last week. Given the change of lace requirements of the BCRA, Banks were practically forced to enter for what $ 3.8 billion pesos were awarded to the only letter offeredwhich pays tamar + 1% rate and expires on November 28.
“After the modifications, the deposits in view have a lace of 37% in liquid pesos and of 13% in remunerated pesos (Treasury Letters), thus reaching a total lace of 50% of the deposits. In the BCRA Treasure account there are now 12 billion to deal with the maturities for the future “they detailed from vector.
This week also happened A meeting between monetary authorities and private banks, since there is much discontent in the sector because the government modified how to account for bank lace. Previously the monthly average was computed, while now they are computed daily. On Monday and Tuesday of this week, the banks stopped taking a bond at the end of the wheel which collapsed the bond rates one day to 1% annual nominal.
On Wednesday, however, the opposite happened, The rates rose above 100%. In the middle, “the BCRA intervened erratically: taking passes to put floor at the rate, then through the new window of active passes, on Thursday intervening in futures and in the Lecaps market,” they explained from vector.
In short, from this consultant, they believe that “Monetary policy is increasingly involved in its own labyrinthgenerating chaos both in the financial system and towards the real economy, where SMEs have to suffer an advance rate that at times exceeds 90% per year. Meanwhile, the gap between active and passive rate widens, due to the costs it has for the financial system the current level of lace, plus those typical of uncertainty. “
Very high rates: the impact on activity and financial cost
From SBS groupthey warn again that The dynamics of rates, although it can be used to “reduce pressure” on inflation and dollarit is clear that it is “Extremely harmful for medium -term economic activity” and that must be reduced eventually. “The negative effect on the activity, something already seen during the second quarter, when the real rates were not as high as currently, could move to the fiscal plane by pressing a minor collection“They said.
In addition, they assured that The financial cost involved, if this level of real rate is maintained, will eventually press on the primary surplus necessary for sustainability. “While the cost in implicit interests can be relatively low because they are low duration instruments, reducing the financial cost is extremely necessary to avoid deterioration in economic activity,” they completed.
On this point, from the Consultant 1816they also put the focus. “This level of rates, of staying for a long time, would undoubtedly jeopardize government tax achievements,” they advanced and explained the current status.
“Today, the entire treasure debt in pesos that lies around the $ 230 billion at market value. If 100% of that stock will become LECAP or BANCAP placed at a monthly rate of 4%, the capitalization would be $ 9.2 billion per month. Of that total, half -And $ 4.6 billion – would correspond to the positive component in real terms of the interest rate (considering, by way of simplification, by way of simplification, by way a nominal rate of 4% and an inflation of 2% monthly) ”, They warned.
“That figure is equivalent to a fiscal cost of around 0.5% of GDP every month, which projected in a year exceeds 6% of GDP. They added.
Source: Ambito
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