Last Friday, The official dollar went up for the third consecutive day in the wholesale segment Along with the financial, despite the government’s monetary squeeze and the extreme volatility of the last wheels in the cion to one day. The currency climbed $ 6 to $ 1,321 and accumulated a rise of $ 21 in the week.
In turn, the Retail dollar climbed at $ 1,337.23 for sale in the average of financial entities of the Central Bank (BCRA). In the cash segment a total volume of more than US $ 540.7 million was operated.
Meanwhile, in the Nation Bank (BNA) reached $ 1,335 for sale at the CERR of the week. Thus, the dollar card or tourist, and the savings (or solidarity) dollar, equivalent to the official retail dollar plus a surcharge of 30% deductible from the income tax, was $ 1,735.5.
Among the parallels, the MEP dollar advanced 0.5% to $ 1,329.08, while the dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) It did 0.7% to $ 1,333.81. He dollar Bluerose to $ 1,345 for sale, according to a survey of Scope in the City caves.
The contracts of future dollar They closed with a majority. The “price” market that the wholesale exchange rate at the end of August It will be $ 1,334.5 (implicit TNA of 53.29%), and that in December It will reach up to $ 1,535. The volume operated in futures was US $ 1,586 million.
REM DEL BCRA: Gurúes de la City rose estimates from the dollar for August
The projections of Official dollar They are less optimistic after the jump of the end of July. The City’s guru foresee that the official currency Recoul in the face of previous measurement. By December 2025, the set of participants predicted a nominal value of $ 1,405, which yields an expected year -old variation of 37.6% (+7.9 pp regarding Previous rem). The figure is far from the first projections estimated by the Government for the preparation of the 2026 budget: It estimates that the nominal exchange rate will increase 20.4% per year, to $ 1,229 at the end of December.
The REM, meanwhile, projects an exchange depreciation for this year, since the annual rise of the American ticket (37.6%) It is located more than 10 points above the inflation forecast for the same periodwhich is projected in 27.3% (the estimate included in the 2026 budget will be 22.7%).
According to the June REM, analysts project a moderate increase path for the official dollar in the coming months, between 1.9% (September) and 2.4% (November).
Dollar Blue Suba.jpg
Depositphotos
The market hopes that the Supplies remain in force until October
THE CHANGE OPERATOR Gustavo Quintana He said that, taking into account that the last week of each month enhances the demand for currency for coverage and for closing positions that expire next Fridayof maintaining the financial volatility of these days, “It is concluded that a renewed downward journey of the price becomes something unlikely”.
The economist Gustavo Ber He pointed out that despite high levels in real rates, The exchange rate “threads a gradual rearrangement in the last wheels”and could seek to consolidate at $ 1,300 as a flat at this stage.
“As the usual electoral coverage is intensified, the dollar would continue more sustained”he indicated, while the expectations prevail among the operators that the Super many remain in force waiting for a more clear political scenario after The October legislative elections.
Milei Caputo Dollar
Scope
Operators warn of balance in the peso curve behind Lefis
For its part, the fixed income strategist of criteria, Federico Sibiliahe remarked that there is uncertainty among the operators, since “The Government decided to do everything possible so that it does not overweight, paying the necessary costs.”and that from the disarmament of the Lefis the market and the peso curve seem not to find balance.
However, understand that “The cost of sustaining this scenario becomes unlikely to last beyond October”since the fact that they remain Real rates at these levels “will end up affecting private credit and their role as the main driver of the activity”.
JP Morgan cut its growth projection for Argentina for electoral uncertainty and volatility of interest rates
The American bankJP Morgan pHe placed a report this Friday where he cut his growth projection of the Argentine economy by 2025. Now it foresees 4.7% of the internal gross product (GDP) instead of the 5.3% were in previous works. It marks the deceleration of the economy in the second quarter of this year, the volatibility of rates and “electoral uncertainty”.
The JP Morgan recognizes advances in the fiscal surplus and in the reduction of inflation (Projecting an interannual inflation of 26.8% for December 2025), but it emphasizes that political uncertainty and financial volatility could negatively affect Internal consumption, exports and macroeconomic stability in the coming months.
In the report there is a chapter on the difficult week the government had in Congresswhere he lost almost all votes, but managed to keep the retirement law. Precisely, on that last vote, JP Morgan He stressed that the ruling party could avoid the fiscal impact that the increase in retirement and pensions would have meant that promoted the different opposition blocks.
However, The reiteration of legislative defeats adds doubts to the political future of the government. The volatibility of rates is a sign of these doubts in the market, which was reluctant in the role proposed by Luis Caputo’s portfolio.
Source: Ambito
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