The case of alleged corruption hits the government and, on the days of the legislative, investors fear that political noise affects the legislative election.
He coimas scandal That it began when a recording was made public in which the now extitular of the National Disability Agency (Andis), Diego Spagnuolo, heard him say that bribes were paid to officials in the acquisition of medicines, continues to splash the Executive and, in that frame, from the City they speak of that “Political noise” on the days of the legislative election in the province of Buenos Aires puts at risk An electoral triumph of Lla, key to strengthening the macroeconomic plan.
So far, Spagnuolo and other members of the agency were separated from their positions last week And the investigation continues with prosecutors analyzing personal objects seized after a search. For now they talked Eduardo “Lule” Menemone of the main political advisors of the Casa Rosada, and the head of the Chamber of Deputies, Martín Menemwho denied the accusations that weigh on the president’s sister, Karina Milei, And they stated that it is an operation of Kirchnerism.
In that framework, Argentine assets started the week with strong losses And City analysts argue that it is due to political noise generated by scandal because I could complicate the electoral performance of freedom progress In the PBA.
“The price driver today is the electoral calendar: September and, above all, October. Valuations are adjusted by the implicit probability of each economic policy scenario (fiscal and monetary anchors, exchange rate, rates) and by how that affects country, dollar and activity, “he told Scopethe head of CEPEC, Leonardo Anzalone.
For this expert, the case “Andis”, If confirmed, It is “very serious in political and institutional terms”, but in terms of market, it is only “political noise”. “It will only have a relevant impact if it modifies electoral expectations. If you do not alter that map, its prices effect will be transitory”he detailed.
Why does the market worry the scandal for bribes in the Andis?
In turn, the analyst Leonardo Svirskyit also coincided with this analysis: “These causes, the market takes them badly. Today the shares started more than 3% below, bonds also falling and 1 day caution rates in 54%. Everything is because of the political noise of a more than dirty campaign“
“The initial market reaction is bad But it is a scandal that may not be so great. The market always wants more certainty than a government response “he said to Scope, Rafael Di Giorno of Profession And pointed out another of the consequences that brings the impact on the markets of the political scandal for the coimas: “The official spot dollar rises around 2% and it is good that they let it go to a politician a politician. It seems good that they are not intervening there.”
Surveys in the province of Buenos Aires give it a slight advantage for Patria Force, although some give up Freedom progresses. However, measurements are not yet known that have taken into account the impact of the coimas scandal. The election will take place on September 7, so only 13 days are missing. The electoral calendar is completed on October 26 with the national elections that will renew benches in Congress.
The other “drivers” that impact the market
Anzalone also detailed which are the others “Important drivers”in economic terms, which impact the price of Argentine assets: The exchange rate, reserves and real rates. “Without a doubt, for the government it is key to maintain tax signs and the relationship with international organizations,” he said. “Another issue is not less than The market is also expectant to see what happens with the tender of this week’s finance secretariat“Leonardo Svirsky added.
The agency that Pablo Quirno leads will announce on Monday the offer of instruments that will be put into play in the tender on Wednesday. In the first placement of August, the rollover level was only 61%, which released about $ 5.8 billion. “That situation forced the treasure to convene a second auction in which he introduced Tamar bonds expiration in November, while the Central Bank modified the lace requirements to absorb the surplus weights. In the financial square it is speculated that the panorama could be repeated“Wise Capital anticipated.
Source: Ambito
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