With a pronounced and generalized “Sell off”, from end to end in the day, the Argentine shares and bonds suffered on Monday one of the greatest cimbronazos of the era of Javier Milei. The Shares and sovereign bonds collapsed up to 10%, the country risk jumped to levels close to 800 points, while the official dollar climbed more than 3% and the parallels marked new maximums since April. The market incorporated in prices The political scandal for alleged coimas in the National Disability Agency (Andis), which fully splashes the ruling partyin a scenario already rarely after the recent legislative setback, the volatility of the Supplies in pesos less than two weeks of the provincial elections in Buenos Aires.
Under this backdrop, the S&P Merval suffered one of its worst fall of the year: 4% collapsed to 2,021,852 points in pesos and 6% in dollars (at 1,484 units, near the minimum of 2025). Gas Transporter del Norte, Metrogas, Commercial Company of Plata, Supervielle and Banco Macro They were among the most punished papers, with falls of between 7% and 10%. The only role that managed to escape the reds was Aluar (+3%).
The coup was also replicated on Wall Street: Supervielle, Edenor, Macro, BBVA and Galicia came to lose between 7% and 10%, confirming that political shock resulted in a generalized “Sell off”. Argentine actions They already write down up to 50% so far this year, such is the case of Edenor, while banks lose up to 46% in the New York Stock Exchange.
Some operators described the day as A true “massacre”, with strong casualties in almost all risk assets. “In addition to the entire issue of volatility of fees, the political issue was added today, with the alleged irregularities that point against (the Secretary General of the Presidency) Karina Milei “, Nicolás Cappella pointed out, Sales Trader of Grupo IEB. Therefore, “The market reacted with a ´sell off phenomenal ‘in all assets, for fear that the electoral result (October) is not the victory that was discounted in prices”Cappella added.
But that was not all. In addition, the Trust Index (ICG) of the DI Tella, which showed a clear decline in the positive image of the Executive. Government confidence fell 13.6% in August to its lowest value since the beginning of the mandate of Javier Milei: It was located in 2.12 points. The ICG, which has been calculated since November 2001 on a scale of 0 to 5, allows to compare citizen perception along different efforts. The value of August is 16.3% lower than August 2017, during the presidency of Mauricio Macri (2.53 points), and 14.3% higher than August 2021, under the mandate of Alberto Fernández (1.85). In average terms, the ICG accumulated in the 20 months of Javier Milei’s government is located in 2.48 points, a slightly lower level than that registered in the same Macri period (2,58) and above that of Fernández (2,17).
For their part, the dollar titles did not escape the generalized collapse of the market: Bonar 2038 fell 4.4%, Bonar 2029 3.8% and Global 2041 3.6%. With this collapse, the country risk reached at 800 points, its highest level in four months, a fact that follows closely in the City. In turn, the Boppreals gave 70 cents, while the CER bonds sank up to 4% in the middle section. The fixed rate curve fell 1.4% and dual 1.7%.
On the exchange front, the wholesale dollar climbed $ 41 to $ 1,362, The retailer reached $ 1,370 at Banco Nación and the parallels advanced in block: the MEP closed at $ 1,362, the CCL at $ 1,366 and the Blue at $ 1,365, very close to its April record.
The BCRA, this time, chose to “let” go to the exchange rate to decompress a scenario that had already stressed to the rate market in recent weeks. In the futures more than US $ 2,000 million were negotiated And the market already discounts a dollar of $ 1,553 for December, above the ceiling of the official exchange band.
The political factor and what is coming
In the City there was consensus: the trigger for the saleswoman was the scandal of alleged coimas in the Andis, which hits the ruling party and revives political uncertainty in the prelude to the elections. Operators agreed that, beyond the immediate financial impactwhat worries is the reading that the electorate can do of a case that, unlike previous episodes (such as Libra), is easily understandable and has a media side that amplifies it.
In Argentina, social reaction to corruption cases is never linear: sometimes zero tolerance predominates, and on other occasions the issue is diluted without major effects at the polls. However, The risk that this episode alters the probabilities of the electoral contest was already reflected in the dynamics of assets.
For Pedro Siaba SerratePersonal investments, the difference with other recent scandals, such as the so -called “Cryptogate”, is that the case is now installed in traditional media and is not limited to a social media niche. According to that reading, The process can be slower but also more durable, which forces the market to emphasize its political scenario.
With which, the attention of the operators will move more and more to the surveys, with the aim of measuring the humor of the voters in a context of increasing polarization. The same recognizes “traders”, who speak of a “electoral fear” difficult to reverse in the short term.
Besides, Rafael di Giorno, Director of Proficio, warned that the Government also showed “inexperience” when handling the volatile situation of rates, maintaining a high interest rates scheme and artificially containing the dollar until the new “political shock” ended up reactivating the demand for coverage and bringing the exchange rate to levels close to its maximum of July ($ 1,374). That combination made the impact on actions and bonds deeper.
Thus, in the final stretch towards October, the dynamics of local prices seem to be marked by politics rather than by the macro. The question that opens in the City is whether the case will be diluted, like other previous ones, or if it will become a weight factor that conditions both the electoral strategy, as well as the pulse of the financial markets. “The next stop will be this Wednesday, when the treasure will try to renew about $ 9 billion in a context of strong monetary squeeze -this Monday the BCRA raised the lace again -the official objective is to avoid that they remain loose weights in the square they can press on the dollar, which is only 7.4% of the ceiling of the flotation band ($ 1,463).
Source: Ambito
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