Economists question the rise of lace and high rates: “We pass from the anker point to crowding out”

After the Central Bank announced a new rise in bank lace, In order to generate a forced demand for the bonds that the treasure will tender on Wednesday, the questions of economists to the course that took monetary policy.

“We pass from the ‘Anker Point’ to the ‘Crowding out’ in a tab. The speech is floating dollar and endogenous rate, but the practice shows something else: The treasure is financed in the market thanks to the regulation, ”said economist Leo Anzalone, head of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC).

The criticisms were renewed after the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, will reject an consultant statement Fernando Marull, in the sense that The rates are “ridiculously high” And that this is not due to the electoral context, as suggested from the Palacio de Finance.

Caputo ratified that the government only controls the amount of circulating money and that the cost of financing reflects this and also assured that, after freedom progresses (lla) wins the elections, that variable will be stabilized.

But Economists look distrust of the scenario of uncertainty and volatility that was born from July 14, When it was decided to end the fiscal liquidity letters (Lefi) to handle the daily liquidity of the banks. From that moment, interest rates doubled.

A fence to banks

Some analysts commented that now the government seeks to assemble A kind of “corral” to banksby forcing them to immobilize more and more money, whether in cash or through expiration bonds beyond the elections, date on which, according to the official hypothesis, the causes that generate instability would be completed.

Of the idea of ​​the “anker point”, which would be the time when the credit migrates to the private sector, because the State retires as a plaintiff, now they affirm that it is in a “crowding out”, the reverse movement. AND Banks stop working on banks to lend their weights to the government.

Anzalone points out that “The BCRA turns on the vacuum again: Go up the lace and force banks to finance the treasure. “” monetary policy is subordinated to the fiscal bank. Less and less weights, less pressure to the dollar, but also less activity, ”he warns.

The economist explains that From September 1, lace in pesos and 2% of deposits in sight rise 3.5%. “The novelty: they can be integrated with public titles that the Treasury broadcasts in the next tender (this Wednesday), that is, it is a way of forcing them to participate in the tender,” he says. “This means that The BCRA assembles the rules so that banks do not have escape and use their liquidity to buy public debt ”, The professional said, who said the economy “is less free.”

“Why now? The treasure faces maturities and needs to roll its debt so that there are no weights that can press the dollar. The market no longer accompanies with the same intensity and the BCRA ensures captive demand, ”says Anzalone.

The professional warns that “the problem is for monetary policy to depend on fiscal policy.” “Returning to the Economic Librarythis is called ‘fiscal dominance’: everything accommodates the need to finance the State. Less freedom in exchange for macro order. Is it wrong? No, it’s bad to lie, ”he said.

In that sense, the financial analyst Christian Buter He said that, “as banks prefer to have greater liquidity and decide not to voluntarily renew the maturities of the treasure, The BCRA compulsively forces them by increasing lace ”.

For its side, the economist Iván Carrino He questioned: “If banks are obliged to fit pesos buying public titles, Do they work for banks or do the State coercively financing? ”

For its side, Gabriel Caamañofrom Outlier, he warned: “Forcing all the time monetary-channel balances leads to worse balancesbecause the agents learn that you are forcing them and that you will continue to force them. Ergo, you end with all forced. For example, higher levels of rate and paid lace, but with the same exchange rate level or even one higher ”.

All cannons to the tender on Wednesday

The government has to renew Wednesdays this Wednesday for about $ 9 billion. Strictly speaking, the total was almost $ 14 billion, but last Monday he made a exchange with the Central Bank for about $ 4.5 billion for the LECAP that expires this Friday.

In the First August tender, in which about $ 14 billion beat, the debt rollover was 61%, So they were “loose” around $ 5.8 billion. To recover them, an extraordinary placement was armed and the lace increased, with the possibility of integrating a part of them with the bonds tendered by the treasure.

With it the Economic team managed to get all the money from the market. The announcement of a new increase in lace to levels of 53.5%, with chances of integrating with the bonds that are going to be tender, indicates that The government anticipates a bad disposition of banks to voluntarily attend. If not adopt the measures, it would probably have low levels of acceptance again.