In a context of high interest rates, political noise due to the alleged coimas scandal in the prelude to a key election, and a sustained process of disinflation, the CER bonds continue to lose value.
The bonds cer, Those who are tied to inflation, They already offer returns close to 40%, plus IPC. It is not an isolated phenomenon: the entire curve in pesos shows very high yields and, in addition, operates inverted, with greater returns in the shortest deadlines. However, as the logic of the market marks, behind the attractive profits, increasing risks are also hidden.
What happened, by recapitulating the last weeks, was that to the disinflation process that, with some slight fluctuations, continues to happen, He joined him High volatility in interest rates after the passage of the monetary policy system at an endogenous rate (with the end of the Lefis). Since then, the Government applies patches through regulatory changes of the Central Bank (BCRA) to control liquidity.
This week, in addition, he joined More political noise Given the different edges that emerge from the scandal of the coimas in disability that, although, do not direct directly into the market values If they do it to the possibility that the performance of freedom progresses (lla) in the elections of the province of Buenos Aires is not goodwhich would harm his image for the national elections in October.
“Totally absurd what the market is seeing, but well understandable, after August 2019 nobody is encouraged and are all with ultra defensive positions. The Discount bonus today has a larger IRR to that of the Silvina Batakis era as Minister of Economy (July 2022). The only reason for `to practice these values is that you get less than 30% in October“He said to Scopethe financial analyst Daniel Osinaga And he added: “There is also a bracelet between Milei and the banks that clearly do not like the new model, their profitability went on the ground.”
On the previous day it was known that The Central Bank rose again the percentage of paid lace that banks must allocate from their deposits. As of September 1, they will rise at 3.5 percentage points The remunerated, both for the deposits in sight and for fixed deadlines and common investment funds Money Market. With this measure, lace will be increased to 53.5%, higher level since the 80s. In fact, at the moment, there is more money on lace than the circulating in the street.
Bond curves in pesos, will they normalize after the elections?
“You cannot leave a free market when you have these weeks that are pure speculation, it is fine that you act as a regulator. Obviously post elections there are no excuses“He told this medium, Osinaga. This week, in addition, there will be a new tender of the Treasury, which the government needs to guarantee the “rollover” of almost $ 8 billion that are still pending. The menu includes Lecap with maturities in December, January and February, letters at Tamar rate and dollar Linked.
For its part, Matthew ReschiniHead of Research of INVIUalso in a talk with this media, he assured that he believes that what the general market situation is reflecting It is a rate of rates in generalized pesos by the volatility that the new system of monetary aggregates broughtS In addition to the disinflation process (in the case of the CER debt). “We came a little with high rates and this situation continued to drag. This will continue to firm until the scheme is finished.”he added.
Different scenarios in the elections: how to cover yourself
The latest fixed income report made by Justina GedikianAnalyst Mr. of Fixed Income of Cohen financial allieshe elaborated Three possible scenarios for October And how that impacts bonds in pesos.
- Optimistic scenario. For this expert, a forceful victory of the ruling would consolidate its position and reduce political uncertainty. In this scenario, he projected that exchange tensions could be moderated and inflation decelerate himself more quickly (around 24.3% per year in 2025), which would allow somewhat more relaxed rates. “As a result, The fixed rate titles would be the most attractive, with an average yield close to 56% TNA. The CER and the duals would be at intermediate levels (43% TNA and 39.2% TNA, respectively), while the dollar–Linked would lose attractive, with returns of just 12% TNA, “he outlined.
- Neutral scenario. A more adjusted victory result, according to Gedikian, without clear predominance of any force, would maintain political uncertainty and could generate greater pressure on the exchange rate. He also said that inflation would be somewhat higher (around 29.3% per year in 2025) and rates would remain at levels similar to the current ones. “In this contextthe performance would be more balanced between instruments: the Dollar-Linked and they would be rendered between 62% TNA and 47% TNAwhile the duals and the fixed rate would show returns of about 50% TNA, “he said.
- Negative scenario. Finally, an unfavorable result for the ruling would increase fragmentation in Congress and raise doubts about governance, said the expert. This would imply higher exchange tensions, higher inflation (about 33.7% per year in 2025) and rates sustained at high levels, projected. “Under this assumption, the Dollar-Linked would be the most effective coverage, with estimated yields of 72% TNA. The CER would also be favored (52.8% TNA)while the duals and the fixed rate would be more lagging, with returns around 50% TNA and 43.8% TNA, respectively, “he closed.
Source: Ambito
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