In a context of growing financial tensions and exchange pressures, the government, leading in the economic by the minister Luis Caputotook a bold step to strengthen its dominance over the key market variables.
As anticipated scope, in the last hours Controls on interest rates and stock markets intensify. At the same time, during this Tuesday afternoon, it was announced that the land is prepared for the Launch of the futures contract on 1 -day bond rate in A3 markets.
This instrument, approved by the National Securities Commission (CNV) and announced in the circular No. 1086-25 and the communication No. 461 of ARGENTINA CLEARING AND REGISTRATIONemerges as a key piece in the official strategy to mitigate the dollar risk and appease pre -election volatility.
The new futures contract, which will allow the operators to speculate and cover themselves in front of the fluctuations of the bond rate one day – a critical indicator of interbank liquidity – arrives at a time of High sensitivity to markets.
According to sources from the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), the operative of Cajiones, fragmented in the Byma and A3 markets (which joined the MAE and the Matba-Refex), It has experienced exponential growth, exceeding $ 2 billion in monthly operations. This volume, added to the recent climbing of rates – which reached 86% annual peaks in the short term – reflects the pressure facing the financial system in the face of political uncertainty and the proximity of the legislative elections of September 7 in the province of Buenos Aires and October 26 at the national level.
Regulations that emerge to regulate the market
The Government, aware that movements in caution rates directly impact on the dynamics of the exchange rate and inflationary expectations, has opted for a tweezing approach. On the one hand, the BCRA, under the conduct of Santiago Bausili, and the CNV have intensified real -time monitoring of volumes, prices and participants in the Caión market.
On the other, the launch of the futures contract seeks to provide the market with an instrument that allows anticipating and managing the fluctuations of the fees, while reinforcing the capacity of the Executive to mold investors’ expectations. “We analyze every day the dynamics of the money markets, the gear market and the title curve. If there is a lack of information about the Caión market, which is split in three and grew exponentially, it is likely that we work to have a better monitoring,” He pointed out a high source of the BCRA.
Speculations about the objectives of this maneuver have not been waiting. In financial circles, it is interpreted that the government seeks, with this contract, to anchor expectations on short -term rates, preventing the volatility of the cion.
The introduction of a future on the bond rate could facilitate the coverage of risk for financial agents, while giving the BCRA a additional tool to read the market signals and, potentially, influence them indirectly. Some analysts go further and suggest that this initiative could be a step towards greater state intervention in the capital market, in an attempt to dry the peso square and relieve pressure on the exchange rate in an electoral context loaded with uncertainty.
The political background cannot be ignored. The recent audios filtration that compromise the majority of the government and the increase in country risk, which already exceeds 800 basic pointshave exacerbated the distrust of investors.
In this scenario, the Treasury faces the challenge of renewing debt maturities for almost $ 8 billion this week, with a key tender that includes maturities with maturities as of September 30, 2025 (S30s5), January 16, 2026 (S16E6) and February 27, 2026 (S27F6), in addition to bonds Linked and adjusted by the wholesale rate of Argentina (Tamar). The official strategy, which combines a hardening of bank lace – 53.5% elevated for obligations in view in pesos – with the supply of longer instruments, aims to break the vicious circle of increases in rates and difficulties in debt renovations.
Source: Ambito
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