Another coup for activity: lace returns to the 2019 level and for sight deposits they play record in 32 years

From September 1, with the new rise of lace, the Percentage of deposits in sight that banks must immobilize will reach a record in 32 years. Analysts warn that the measure I could shoot the delinquency of companies. On average, the weights embedded in the Central Bank (BCRA) are already located at levels similar to those of 2019, in full financial crisis.

After a new call for tender by the Ministry of Finance, the BCRA communicated a increase of 3.5 percentage points (pp) for paid laceintegrable with the term titles greater than 60 days that the Treasury will place this Wednesday. This regulation will govern both for the deposits in sight and for common investment funds (FCI) Money Market and fixed deadlines.

In addition, the monetary authority arranged a 2 pp reduction for cash lace in sightalso integrable with the letters and bonds that Luis Caputo and Pablo Quirno will offer to investors. As they said to Scope Official sources, this second decision was the result of the attention to a claim that banks led to the latest meetings, within the framework of financial volatility unleashed with the change of monetary policy.

The percentage of lace reaches a new record: they warn impact on business delinquency

This is the fourth modification in the lace from the disarmament of the Lefis, which left a large flow of pesos in circulation, thus causing an initial collapse of rates, which was later corrected by an abrupt increase. A PPI report said that, As of September, the lace of the deposits in sight will scale up to 52.3% on average (contemplating both the cash and the integrable portion), a record since January 1993 (71%). Since July, the rise was 8.3 pp the greatest increase was given for FCI Money Market, where the percentage jumped 28 pp, to 48.5%.

For their part, from the Economic Studies Management of the Province Bank, they reflected that, taking the average of the last five days, The amount of pesos embedded in the current BCRA account is already in the 2019 averageyear in which the credit collapsed 40% per year.

In this context, they warned that this deepening in the “monetary squeeze will impact active rates, mainly advances and documents to companies“.”The discovered already cost more than 7% monthly (that is, more than triple than August inflation), and the shortage of liquidity will be exacerbated in the coming weeks, “they deepened.

Therefore, in the province they see that Money, which has been affecting families most, probably extends to companies. “The companies that may have more cash effective (for the increase in the cost of the discovered), and those that will not have to make any adjustment, either in their purchase of merchandise or in their payments of payments to suppliers,” they warned.

The Government and the BCRA seek to renew the debt to reduce dollar and rates volatility

In the tender on Wednesday, Finance will place Lecaps, indexed titles at the official exchange rate (dollar Linked) and titles adjustable by the Tamar rate, corresponding to the fixed wholesale deadlines. From PPI they pointed out that, with the increase in integrable lace with these instruments, the portfolio conducted by Quirno will try to Renew most of the $ 7.7 billion that expire this week, and thus avoid a surplus of pesos that press for a rate decline and an increase in the purchase of dollars.

“Monetary policy is again focused on the financial needs of the Treasury, with an eye on the price of the dollar, after what was the disarmament of the curve pesos during the past week and the intervention of the BCRA for only one day post closing of the MLC to sustain it. This action ensures demand for banks in the tender on Wednesday and thus seeks to guarantee a high roll,” said the consultant. Outlier In a report.

However, the entity said “High rates are not disciplining private currency demand but, on the contrary, they would seem to produce a confirmation effectfeeding the distrust regarding the post electoral period. “” We believe that re -useing regulatory measures to guarantee the rollover despite the high rates does nothing but confirm those presumptions of private agents. The discretionary change of lace also does not contribute, “he said.

With all this, the government again demonstrates that its absolute priority is the slowdown in inflation, for which it needs to maintain the price of the dollar at bay. To the already obvious negative effects on the economic activity of this strategy, the growing doubts about the effectiveness of these changes in the rules of the game are added, all in the midst of turbulence in the political sphere due to the alleged corruption scandal.