The country risk has already jumped almost 50% since the minimum of 2025 and the market evaluates how it will continue

He country risk collapsed more than 70% for 2024 for the expectations generated in the markets the adjustment plan Javier Milei. However, the indicator began to grow since January 2025 and already accumulates a 48% rise from the annual minimumsince it went from the 560 basic points to the current ones 829.

This metric, elaborated by JP Morgan Based on the spred between the yields of the sovereign bonds and those of the United States Treasury (considered the safest in the world), it measures the perception of risk of a nation, as indicated by your name. It is a key thermometer for the government’s possibilities to return to external debt markets to refinance capital maturities.

And al Do not stop going up for almost nine monthsCity specialists began to investigate the causes and how the film will continue.

The Risk country rebounds

For Ian ColomboFinancial Advisor in Cocos Gold, one of the main factors for which the country risk did not continue to lower this year is the weak accumulation of reservations by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA).

“The government’s plan for this year was to reach the elections as tranquility as possible. A year of a lot of volatility needs to have a stable exchange rate, a stable dollar and continue its tax surplus path and downward inflation. The accumulation of reserves does not go in accordance with these objectives,” he said.

In this line, Juan Manuel FrancosChief Economist in Grupo SBS, explained that, regarding net reserves, “although liquids give air to the possibility of paying the bonds, moving away from default ghosts for a while, The market wants to see Argentina accumulate net reserves by itself “.

Government’s plans, the impact on bonds and what to expect

For the specialist, the country risk is going through a upward trend also by the political uncertaintysince between September and October the Congress is updated in the legislative elections.

“We consider the event that It will depend on how the market interprets the result what happens with the bonds and the country risk. If the interpretation is positive, there could be some air in the field of risk raising but, if it is negative, the bond situation could become more uphill, “Franks mentioned.

In addition, Matthew ReschiniInviu research analyst, declared that what happened recently with The apparent cases of coimas linked to senior officials The prices of sovereign bonds and up to both their yields and the country risk also promoted.

“What is being seen on the side of the government is to wait for the elections of the province of Buenos Aires in a few days and then to the mid -term nationals to see what they do, how they stand up to this. And I think that The market is also A little waiting for that and trying to see if structural reforms are effectively passable that can continue to generate a little more bullish feeling in Argentina, “he said.