Debt: As of 2025, the Treasury must renew at least 74% of its maturities not to emit pesos

After the latest debt tender, the treasure must renew, at least 74% of its maturities here at the end of the year so as not to have pesos. In the market they perceive that, in the face of this challenge, the fees will remain high in the coming months, and do not rule out new increases in lace.

This was reflected by the consultant LCGby showing in a report that the current stock of deposits in local Treasury currency in the BCRA is $ 12 billion, figure that reaches to cover 26% of the $ 45.6 billion that expires Between September, October, November and December. The remaining percentage must achieve it in the market, or resort to an expansion of circulating money, something that will be the current monetary policy of the ruling party.

In the recent tender, the Ministry of Economy reported that, not only managed “Rollover” of 114%. However, Melisa Sala, a LCG economist, clarified to the scope that “it was actually 100% If you consider that on Monday he had defeated $ 1 billion for the TG25 “.

“In addition, it is likely that the demand for the shortest letter of yesterday (which expires on 30/9) has been entirely private, which raised the maturities in the short term,” said Sala.

About 60% of investors’ demand was concentrated in indexed bonds at the Tamar rate of the fixed wholesale deadlines, which this Thursday closed in 81% per year, in effective terms. The rest corresponded to Lecaps; For the shortest of these letters, the validated rate was 75.7%,

It is also worth remembering that, previously, the BCRA had arranged a new increase of 3.5 percentage points in lace requirements for all types of banks of the banks, along with a reduction for cash lace of the deposits in sight. This additional could be integrated with the titles offered by the Government, a measure that had an obvious impact on the tender.

In the market they warn that rates and lace will remain at record levels

Forward, from LCG they highlighted that Treasury deposits in the monetary authority can be increased in the coming monthseither by positive financing in tenders as for the fiscal surplus. Therefore, “role” needs could be reduced.

Even so, the consultant said that, in the face of the “current demands, the demand for dollars in the prior to the elections and the erratic management of liquidity of the banks from frequent regulatory and policy changes, the rates will be kept high for a while“. In parallel, They do not rule out that the government seeks to share with banks the cost of sterilization of weightsreloading cash lace, although “if the rise rise is allowed to integrate it with public titles, that would allow the treasure to generate incentives to place debt to minor rates.”

In this regard, Juan José Vásquezspecialist in finance of the Cohen Grouphe pointed to this medium that “if there is no complete ´Rollover´ they can get the lace, but they are already at maximum levels of the last 25 years with which I find it difficult to see it.”

According to a report from PPIas of September, the lace of the deposits in sight will scale up to 52.3% on average (contemplating both remunerated and “cash”), a record since January 1993 (71%).

This scenario, with high rates and lace at record levels, will almost surely remain until the Legislative elections October. This even showed it Caputo, arguing that the current financial volatility responds to the fears of the market for the attempts of the ruling of “breaking with the fiscal balance”, but that the situation “will be transient, because the elections will be very favorable for freedom progresses.”

The change of panorama will be key to the Economic activitywhich in July suffered its third consecutive fall and runs serious risk of entering a new recession. This level of rates is already impacting on the delinquency of families, and it is feasible that it also generates problems in the company’s payment chain.