What is said at the tables: too much political noise, rates in red live and magnifying glass in the future dollar: the market does not buy stories

In this regard, a former economy official who advises funds from abroad explained in a closed meeting that Clients what they wanted to understand was what it is to win or what is losing for freedom progresses (lla) In both elections. Because they had confusion between what the surveys, the analysis of the political schedules and what Milei himself had saidthat on top of that it depends on how it goes in Buenos Aires and in October later, and He put, to the divine button, the very high rod in 40%that is, if they get that percentage of votes or more they consider that they won.

So, The key is to discern what is for the market that Milei wins the choiceor, rather, What is not losing. It seems that the market is not thinking about that guarism, knowing that This is a president who arrived without having the province in his hands. There arises the thesis that If Milei does not reach 40% but at least manages that there are no people who have voted him in the ballot today he does not vote against him againstThat is, he did not accumulate hate among those voters, then perfect. The same is a very opined topic. Above all, by The future ability to have Thor Vetor’s hammer.

What they speculate is that, considering that The mayors are going to play strong in September for the deliberative councilsand if Milei Cut the difference in the third section and has a good performance with the alliance with the PROin October what did not get the PRO in 2023, then The sovereign bond market should not be resent.

In a foreign bank, still well loaded with public roles in their saddlebagsThey are still concerned about the peso market. Both the table and its main clients They recalculate their positions in the Bonte while The dollar flirts with the roof of the gapand how much they have in Lecap and in Hard Dollar bonds To “wish” with some corporate roles.

Also very debated the “pass through”because at the wholesale level something seems to have happened, while at a retail level, the stagnation and margins do not give air to transferfor now. That is why you bet that they can come Some months with homeopathic doses of the “Pass” on the CPI. And from there, that some See opportunities even in the Cer Curve. We will see.

For now, The most uncomfortable with everything that is happening so early They questioned the positive and neutral scenarios, ironizing that “If the Government could not organize a presidential caravan by the Buenos Aires suburbs, how did they plan to get out of the current mess?”. A London manager recognized in a zoom that The pathetic images of the “pick up” campaign presidential alarmed abroad.

What left debt tender, what is coming and the focus on futures

• After the last tender, in which the treasure achieved Stretch “Duration” and clear immediate maturitiesthanks to the increases in lace and whose roll-over It was from 100% and not 114% as Don Quirno saidbecause he passed the maturities of the TG25 for $ 1 billion, he had as the protagonist The tamar rate with more than $ 4.6 trunks awarded $ 7.7 billionwhile The short LECAP (30 days) concentrated non -bank investors, cutting 4.72% monthly effectivewhat implies An annual real -year -old.

Now The next stop is September 10when more than $ 7 billion win. He Wich Panorama of Interest Rates in Pesos It shows a tamar in more than 5% monthly towards an annual effective of 90% (a few weeks ago was in 30% nominal and today more than 65%), while the bond around 50% nominal coming from 25% levels and The advances went from 38% to 87%.

But what today It concentrates attention is the dollar futures marketwhere the exclusive protagonist is The BCRA. The contract of November 2025. The contract level is around 7,700 million dollars And it is speculated that The BCRA has about 6,000 million sold.

That’s why The magnifying glass is put in the BCRA strategy against the expiration of futures of August And what can happen in the last wheels of the month. Not just for The losses in which the BCRA can incur because they are potential emission of pesosbut for The pulse that can be assembled against those who bet and do not want to lose. The operators are now expectant from the actions of the BCRA with the future dollar, that is, how will it do to lower it and cushion losses and raise those of the market. There is a lot of money at stake, and nobody wants to lose.

While they started arriving PRELIMINARY NUMBERS OF THE AUGUST At the tables, and in the fourth week the echoing estimation gave 0.3% food, and 2.1% for the month. In general, The market awaits 2% or more for Augustapparently and heard in face -to -face and virtual meetings. Regarding the Eco Go data, they pointed out that Although inflation in food was less than expectedthe increase in prices of the rest of the categories He kept the indicator.

What else was said among mesadinerists?

In two months it changed a lot: The disarmament of the Lefi accelerated a rise in rates that had already increased in real termshowever, The dollar went from the center to the band’s roof and the country risk rose to more than 800 points.

While in the macro it is held The primary surplus with more chainsawgenerating more tensions, and somewhat more fragile by the higher cost for capitalizable interests and Congress pressure. Well on the side of inflation, and bad on the side of the level of activity, and the same worse on the exchange flank where it looks complicated that the BCRA meets Rin’s goal with the backgroundgiven that The treasure will not buy until the electionsbeing the Achilles heel of the program, before and after the elections. The official bet the thing is A good electoral result makes the country risk and reopen marketsbut that It does not guarantee, for the market, that the exchange dilemma is resolved.

Bets for the elections

Variable rental lovers come today are almost 30% down that when Mauricio Macri faced the mid -term elections and only 20% above with respect to the level of Merval when Macri faced Alberto Fernández in the 2019 Paso, which grabbed him With the guard and very punished.

That is why they believe that The opposition does not get a shining triumph, The punishment looks excessive. However, No one risk if a rally or a “sea-off” comes.

A CHANGER-ACADEMIC WITH PAST ON WALL STREET told colleagues and clients that Without political anchor nothing can be built, anything hereand while the government boasted from the Fiscal, exchange and monetary anchorsnone of that matters if There is no electoral validation. If the political anchorthe rest is unfeasible. He warned: Without political anchor, there is no economic anchor.

One of the more acute ladies on the market pointed days ago that the Probable Fed rates cut would be a generous wink for emergingbut in the Argentine case, To capitalize on it, it would be necessary to arrive with the elections without a déjà vu version step 2019and warned that September always brings more surprises than the football passes market.

Resorting to his football knowledge explained that the signal that the “toto” gave that The transactional M2 does not look at anymore, but the broad monetary baseand He will not issue more except to accompany the demand for money, Aroused all kinds of suspicions about the criteria, and apparently the consensus is that The dollar is the lighthouseso that for her, the Bcra that says play with “4” line changes scheme in each play: One day racks, the other puts the apartment to the caution, then defines what roll-over It is “virtuous”, etc.

He treated the binomial Caputo-Bausili as an undecided DTor worse, As a woman in love leaving the margarita to the rhythm of “I expand, I do not expand, contrary, I do not contract”.

And speaking of passes book, the Pablo Wilenski landing (former Schoroders and Santander) as New Balanz Asset Management Commercial Director.

On the other hand, the manager Investmentspecialized in indexed funds, of the group Vaneckannounced the launch of the Brazilian first ETF that replicates the performance of Argentine companies that are quoted in US bagshe Arge11. The background Replica the US listened marketvector indexcomposed of 15 ADR (American depositary recipes) of companies with a total market value of more than U $ S49,000 million.

The bet is access the recovery of the Argentine economy when economic reforms arrivewith exposure to strategic sectors, in addition to having The liquidity and regulatory transparency of the North American market. The ETF covers companies in the sectors of Energy, finance, industrial goods and communications.

Since January 2023, The reference index has revalued 180.5% in realsurpassing to BDR ARGT39to the Ibvespa and al S&P 500 During the same period. Before its launch, the only way to access Argentine companies in the B3 Stock Exchange was through BDR.

Another good to celebrate, In the midst of so palewas The award of the first scholarship for the Master in Central Banking next to the MIT For a BCRA official, Juan Rodríguez Biassonebeing the First official of the Latin American Central Bank to achieve this. ¡The Argentine to the stick!