The mid -term elections in the province of Buenos Aires will be a key catalyst for the currency. The market is monitoring if Lla can give the Batacazo in front of a Peronism that still exhibits internal fractures.
He Wholesale dollar He goes to close August with a slight casualty (-2.5%) and in the last two months he accumulates a rise in $ 135 (+11.55%). It is a month with a High rates volatilityas well as a Strong rise in bank lace which generated less liquidity in the market, new strategy of the Central Bank (BCRA) To achieve ROLL The debt in treasure tenders.
Facing September, the mid -term choice in the province from Buenos Aires The next 7 will be a key catalyst for the currency, since the market is monitoring if La Libertad advances (lla) He can give the batacazo in the elections in front of a Peronism that still exhibits internal fractures, but plays at home.
In the first eight months of the year, the currency accumulates an increase in $ 301 (+29.2%), while inflation was 20.1% including the projection of 2.1% For this month. This Thursday, the dollar closed in $ 1,333 And so far this week drags a rise in $ 12 (+0.9%).
Official dollar: the government tries to contain the currency by validating high interest rate
The Causion interest rates came to play 97%he Ministry of Economy validated rates of up to 86% And he did extraordinary tenders to renew instruments.
Another of the instruments used during July to contain the exchange rate was the sale of foreign exchange in the futures market, which reached the US $ 1,902 millionaccording to data from the monetary authority itself. In this way, his position sold climbed to US $ 3,811 millionits highest level since August 2022.
“The government is arbitrating all possible movements so that the dollar does not exceed the psychological barrier of $ 1,400”he highlighted in dialogue with Scope The economist Federico Glustein. In that line, he added that a new pre -electoral “carry” will be enabled until November.
For its part, Gustavo Quintana He stressed that it is difficult to do “Forecasts”especially in a month in which a “political seasoning” is introduced such as elections in the province of Buenos Aires. “Usually in Argentina, there is a tendency to dollarize in electoral periods, but this time there is a powerful ingredient such as the level of the interest rate”added about the possibility of Carry.
For Eric Paniagua of Dekadrak Venture Capital Consulting The electoral process is splashing the market and the quotation of futures. “The choice of the province of Buenos Aires will be a good test to know how it is stopped for the October elections. At the same time, it is an advance to know if Milei is emerging or not as a reference at the national level,” he said.
On the possibility that the rise in the dollar generates an acceleration in inflation, Glustein mentioned that “the ‘Pass Through’ is low but more for decline in consumption and income of imported goods than by action of monetary policy”.
Dollar for September
Regarding the path of the currency, Quintana emphasized that “Surely great volatility and trend changes will be observed that will respond to scenarios of probable results in the elections. I think it is likely that the level exhibited these days will tend to be an apartment in the price, but I don’t think there are significant increases. ”
“Definitely the elections of the province of Buenos Aires will mark the spirits of the operators, in search of political readings – which could be diverse – on October. To the extent that they are not favorable to lla, the dollar could resume rearrangement towards levels close to $ 1,400. Otherwise, it could remain around $ 1,350”He analyzed Gustavo Ber.
Source: Ambito
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