In the middle of the final stretch towards the legislative elections of September in the province of Buenos Aires – just under 2 months of the national elections of October, in the financial market began to circulate the suspicion that the National Treasury went to sell dollars to moderate exchange tension. This is raised by a report of the Consultant 1816which highlights concrete indications that arise following the Recent movements in bank deposits.
According to the survey of the consultant, in recent weeks – from August 11 to 27 – there was a drop in foreign currency deposits measured in dollars for US $ 354 million and, in parallel, an increase in deposits in pesos. By 1816, this dynamic could be associated with currency sales by the treasurein coordination with the Central Bank, with the aim of providing calm in a sensitive political context.
“The Treasury does not communicate these interventionsbut the bank flow pattern suggests that it could have been offering dollars”, Argues the analysis. The hypothesis argues that the movements of the stock deposits in dollars simultaneously occurred to an expansion of deposits in pesos, something that, according to analysts, can hardly be explained only by private movements.
It should be remembered that the ceiling of the flotation band is currently located in $ 1,465 (1% monthly on the rise is updated). Only in the event that the official exchange rate touches that level, Only there the sales of the Central Bank would be activated, as agreed in the agreement with the IMF.
Political and monetary context
In detail, as highlighted from 1816, with the data published late last Friday, it was recorded that in 4 of the 11 analyzed wheels the drop in treasure dollars in the central dollars is repeated exactly coincides with the increase in deposits in treasure pesos in the BCRA.
“The operations of those 4 wheels that we mention add up to $ 133 million, but we cannot rule out that the sales have been higher, given the fall of deposits, which reached the aforementioned US $ 354 million between 11/Aug and 27/Aug.” about the movement that was not yet officially confirmed.
The consultant’s reading appears In a stage of strong monetary hardening by the Central Bankthat in the last days Retrings rise again to drain pesos. The report highlights that the combination of more expensive weights and an eventual offer of dollars from the treasure would have as a goal stabilize expectations in the previous electoral.
LIVING FINANCE MARKETS ACTIONS INVERSIONES INVERSIONS DOLAR BONDS
Depositphotos
Anyway, the consultant warned that it is a strategy “Delicate and conditioned”While the treasure has the capacity to sustain these sales, the market could find some calm. But, if that flow was interrupted or the departure of deposits, the Financial Front would be under pressure again.
The economist of Profit Consultores, Amílcar Collante, analyzed the recent suspicions of the City and highlighted the different mechanisms that the government used to intervene the currency: “Until the band’s roof cannot sell the BCRA (the dollars of the IMF). What did he do to avoid it? Raised and lace, sold future dollar —All for US $ 6,000 million, with a limit of US $ 9,000— and The treasure sold inside the band (not yet confirmed), where it still has US $ 1,670 million. ”
The new regulatory changes of the BCRA
The Central Bank (BCRA) announced new limitations that they took the financial sector again, with the aim of controlling the liquidity of the banks and relieving the pressure on the dollar in a context prior to two relevance elections.
The measure was informed last Friday through the communication “A” 8311. The decision revived criticism: from the bank they indicated that the constant change of rules hinders planning and generates losses, thus deepening the discomfort of the sector.
In detail, two of the modifications will begin to govern in December, while the third It already entered into force last Friday, coinciding with the closure of the month. The latter establishes that each entity You cannot increase your net negative position in foreign currency compared to the last business day of the previous month.
The BCRA seeks with these measures Limit the “synthetic” positions that banks usually close at the end of the monthwhen future dollar contracts expire. The typical operation consisted of selling dollars in the cash market (“shortar”), Place the pesos at the rate to make “Carry Trade”And acquire exchange coverage through future dollar contracts, provided that the futures rate was lower than the rate in pesos.
Until this week, the Central Bank operation consisted of selling a amount equivalent to the contracts that overcome, allowing the banks to “roll” their positions at convenient rates and avoiding increasing currency demand in the cash market. Another alternative was for entities to reduce their exhibition in futures, with the risk of moving greater pressure to the Mulc and press the wholesale dollar, as happened at the end of July.
Source: Ambito
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