Gold and silver, two precious metals that have Cedears, doubled their value in the last three years for global political and commercial risks.
The silver exceeded US $ 240 for the first time since 2011 and the gold He approached historical maximums again, driven by the growing expectations of Rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This rebound reinforces the upward trend of several years in metals, which Cedears have, for economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Specifically, cash in cash advanced up to US $ 40.76 and already accumulates an increase close to 40% so far this year, while gold rose 1.2%, being just below its April record, when it exceeded US $ 3,500 the ounce. Both raw materials doubled their value in the last three years for increasing risks in the commercial and political spheres.
Interest rates drive gold and silver
The market expects the Federal Reserve to reduce rates at its meeting in the late September, a scenario that favors metals by decreasing the opportunity cost of keeping assets that do not generate interest.
Analysts point out that both gold and silver They exceeded key technical levelswhich triggered new speculative purchases.
The recent dynamics also responds to a weakening of the dollar, which reinforces the demand in markets such as China and India, and the strong income of capital into quoted funds backed by silver, which registered their seventh consecutive month of growth in August.
In this framework, Morgan Stanley estimates that Gold could rise another 10%while silver shows margin to overcome its current forecasts.
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Uncertainty continues
In parallel, political uncertainty in the United States adds fuel to the rally. The tensions between the White House and the Fed, as well as the dismissal in dispute of a governor of the Central Bank, sowed doubts about the independence of the institution.
To this is added the ruling of an appeals court that Trump’s global tariffs declared illegal, although it allowed them to remain while the case is resolved.
The pressure on the supply also contributes to the rise: The reserves available in London were reduced and metal lease rates remain unusually high, around 2%. In addition, the recent inclusion of silver in the list of critical minerals from the United States reinforces the perception of strategic shortage.
In this context, precious metals continue to consolidate their position as a financial refuge, with gold, silver, platinum and paladium registering sustained profits, while investors prepare for a cycle of lower cost of money globally.
Source: Ambito
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