Alert reservations: the treasure already adds US $ 14,200 million in 2025 and is the highest in six years

So far this year, the level of Treasurement of dollars by people and companies -No financial- already reached the FRIOLERA Sum of US $ 14.2 billion. It should be noted that since the stocks were flexible for natural persons in mid -April the stencam US $ 14,730 million Until last July.

It happens that, during January and March, there were Capital repatriation (unbridled) for US $ 531 million Under the Empire of the “Carry Trade”, which had been giving, in fact, since February 2024. So, with the lifting of exchange restrictions for individuals and families, the current of the treasury, despite the honeys of the “Carry Trade”, was almost unstoppable, taking almost the equivalent of the currencies entered by abroad loans and placing debt placement in the same period.

Already with the closure of the data last July, it can then be said that the accumulated treasurement of 2025 is the highest since 2019and there are still five months left of the year. Even so, it will be difficult to reach the level of 2019 of more than US $ 27,215 millionin full terminal crisis of the Government of Cambiemos. The truth is that apparently in July the evidence evidenced since the opening of the stocks reflects is confirmed again The almost insatiable appetite of families and companies to dollarize.

Banks and futures market

But there were other interesting data of what happened in July, linked not only to the treasure, but with what the banks did, with the businesses in the futures market and with the role of the purchases of Treasury dollars. Let’s see.

Official statistics realize that Non -financial private sector financial account (from the Central Bank’s exchange balance) registered a deficit of U $ 3,273 millionproduct of the negative flow of treasurement (for net purchases of tickets and currencies) by U $ S5.432 millionwhich was partially compensated by the net income of Financial loans and credit lines (US $ 1,259 million) and of External transfers exchange operations (US $ 748 million). In relation to the flow linked to these exchanges, it is the counterpart of transfers of local deposits in foreign currency (argening) of residents to their own accounts abroad.

BCRA itself stands out, with reference to the treasurement of July, that “both the outcome of foreign exchange and tickets are mainly explained by the operations of natural persons.” According to the vision of the BCRA, part of this demand for dollars from the people ends in local deposits, which can be used for the cancellation of consumption with cards and therefore not necessarily is treasurement.

For their part, non -financial exterior investors entered through the change market US $ 155 million direct investmentsbut they also performed outputs of US $ 60 million portfolio investments.

What did the banks do in July? The Financial Financial Account of the Financial Sector of the exchange balance of the BCRA was overravitary in U $ S837 millionthanks to net income from financial loans and credit lines (U $ S434 million) and for the fall in the possession of foreign currency assets of the entities that make up the General position position (US $ 408 million)while the net subscription of securities with foreign currency just U $ S5 million.

In this way, the banks closed July with a stock of PGC of US $ 8,162 million, 5% less than the previous monthdue to the fall in ticket possession by U $ S416 millionbarely compensated by an increase in U $ S8 million in currency possession. According to BCRA data, the possession of foreign currency tickets of the banks totaled U $ 4,669 million At the end of the month, which represented 57% of the total PGC and that the banks maintain in the treasury to meet the movements of the argening and the needs of the gear market. It is about lower level since 2022.

Regarding the position of banks in the futures market, official data shows that the set of entities closed Julio with a Position bought at foreign currency for US $20 millionreversing its position sold with respect to the closure of the previous month in some U $ S211 million. In addition, during July, the entities They bought US $ 1,172 million in institutionalized markets and sold $ S961 million directly to “Forwards” customers. But while national banks bought U $ 284 million and closed with a net buying position of U $ S414 millionforeign banks sold U $ S73 million And they finished the month with a net selling position of U $ 395 million.

A no less data, and that reflects the tensions lived last July, was the strong increase in Negotiated volume in term markets that added US $ 44,677 millionequivalent to U $ 2,031 million dailyon average (the operations arranged in the A3 Matba-Rofex market continued to predominate, grouping 78% of the total term to term volume). It is about Greater volume negotiated since the financial crisis of 2018/19. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that the growing and greater interventions of the BCRA in the dollar futures market explains much of this business growth, which led to the closing of Julio with a Sold position of US $ 3,812 millionand it is speculated that in August it raised it to More than US $ 5,000 million.

The role of treasure and impact on reservations

Finally, in relation to BCRA reserves (which in July decreased in US $ 1,107 millionclosing in U $ 38,866 million) It is worth noting that, thanks to the Treasury dollar purchases in the market, US $ 1,299 millionwhich were deposited in the BCRA, and the Net income of capital and interest of loans from international organizations (excluding the IMF) for US $ 1,089 million and al Increased bend of banks in the BCRA (lace) for US $ 1,009 millionthe stock of reserves did not suffer a greater decrease.

Since there was an important expenditure flow due to Capital payments of public titles for US $ 2,711 millionto the Net interest payments for the public sector for US $ 1,516 millionfurther US $ 75 million for the fall in the dollar price of assets that make up the reserves and by the Net payments made by the BCRA through the local currency payment system for other US $ 75 million.