With the sale of currencies, the Government is committed to stop the dollar escalation for the elections, but the measure hits the sovereign bonds strong. Now, the City’s gaze is put on what happens forward with the exchange scheme.
In the previous of the Buenos Aires elections next Sunday, September 7, the Government announced that as of Tuesday it will intervene in the change market, something that the market had already been suspected since last week. The official bet is that the dollar stops climbing And for this, the currencies that the Treasury in the Central Bank: some US $ 1,700 millions. In that context, the City puts the eye on the ability to pay the Sovereign debtthat this wheel collapses, and activates a new rise in the country risk.
“It seems to me that what the government seeks is that the announcement itself operates as a incentive to which the demand for the exchange market is run“, assures this medium the economist of PXQ, Pedro Martínez Geber. The measure already had an impact on he wholesale segment, where The dollar yielded $ 11 to $ 1,361. So much and everything is alone $ 106 (7.8%) of the band’s roof.
Towards the end of the wheel, City operators confirmed that the Central Bank (BCRA) operated in the futures market and also did it in the officer, but on account and order of the treasure, since it cannot intervene directly in the Mulc. The purpose is to “contribute” to the liquidity of the market and its “normal operation”, as reported earlier, the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno.
Now, the exchange flotation scheme provided an official intervention once the exchange rate reaches the band’s ceiling. However, the government changes the rules of the game on the march and starts selling dollars of the Treasure When the currency still did not reach the maximum value of the scheme. Faced with what exchange system we are now? For Geber it would be explained more as a “administered or dirty flotation scheme”, although at first this would be to contain pre -election dollarization.
“This intervention scheme seems to be armed to contain the exchange rate now”the specialist added. The look is extremely short -term, since you have to wait to see “what can happen for choices.”
Strong blow to the bonds: the official intervention did not fall well in the stock market
The intervention that operates as an incentive in the dollar markethits the Fixed income. Is that, the dollars that would be used to intervene in the Mulc are the ones “They guaranteed a part of the payment of the maturities of the global and bonars next January”explains Pablo Repetto, head of Research of Aurum values. In this way, the titles sink until 23% In hard currency and investors begin to doubt the ability to pay debt that the Treasury will have.
Facing January, the Treasury must comply with US $ 4,200 million for maturities of Bonares and Global of those who only have US $ 1,700 millionas he recorded Vector In your weekly report. Now, the consultant adds that not only did they put aside block purchases, but a reduction of US $ 200 million was observed in the last week that “gives indications that they could be selling.”
In parallel, This generates greater pressure on public coffers due to the accumulation of reserves after the elections, but “using what is before, will force them to buy much more than expected”highlights repetto. It should be noted that the BCRA must finish the fourth quarter of 2025 with U $ 2.6 billion negative, According to the latest review of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which relaxed the goal. As of June 13, assets reached 4.7 billion of negative dollarsaccording to the information of the multilateral organism. That is, in the last semester of the year it should increase U $ 2,100 million The treasured currencies.
“We will have to see what the magnitude of the treasure intervention will be because they are not too much currencies to use permanently,” Repetto added.
News in development.-
Source: Ambito
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