The free flotation of the dollar inside the bands came to an end, at least, for now. The Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno, announced that as of Tuesday the treasure will use its dollars to intervene in the exchange market and control the price of the currency. The decision is known in the prelude to two key elections. The first will be this Sunday in the province of Buenos Aires, where legislators will be defined, in what the market considers a central thermometer to evaluate the management of Javier Milei. The result will serve as an advance of what could be the national legislative of October.
Given this decision, it is worth asking what is the power of fire that the treasure has today to intervene in that square. At present, the stock that maintains within BCRA accounts amounts to Au $ 1,700 million. However, the Government could implement a scheme to become more dollars to intervene in the Mulc, through the currencies held by the Central Bank. It should be noted that, at the moment, the monetary authority has liquid reserves for US $20,639 million, amount that is reached if the total reserves are discounted in yuan and gold.
“In principle with today’s announcement, the power of fire amounts to au $ 1,700 million. Although the treasure could buy dollars to the BCRA with its deposits in pesos. In that case, the treasure would act as an intermediary between the BCRA and the Mulc, being a conventional, undercover dollar sale “he said to Scope, Federico Machadoeconomist of Open economy.
Despite this clarification about how the operation would be for the treasure to be made more dollars to intervene, Several doubts arose within the City about the way in which the sale of currencies would be carried out on the first day of intervention in the Mulc (at least whitish). In practice, This Tuesday it was BCRA himself who operated in the exchange market and not directly the treasure.
Anyway, market sources noted that the monetary authority acted “on account and order” of the Treasury, which I would have sold about US $ 100 million in the day, According to private estimates. Indeed, the central did not use its own reserves to contain the price of the dollar, beyond that it did it again in the futures market.
Anyway, some operators were cautious and avoided confirming an eventual intervention of the treasure in the exchange market on Tuesday. The doubt arose because the gross reserves of the BCRA increased by US $ 731 million. According to private estimates, “When the positive effect of variations in gold value, Yuan and Deg, the increase ‘without explaining’ of the reserves amounts to $ 630 million.”
“We consider that this responds, mainly, to an recomposition of lace in dollars, usual at the beginning of the month: they had fallen strongly on the last day of August and did not adjust in the same magnitude on Monday,” They explained in the City. Within that framework, they added that “if there was indeed any treasure intervention, which could be reflected in a drop in its dollar deposits in the BCRA and, therefore, in the reserves, that decline would have been compensated by the effect of the lace.”
Confirmation will arrive only in two days, when The new monetary data are published that will allow more precision to observe the movement of deposits in foreign and local currency of the entity.
The other place with official participation: the futures
On this day, the first from the official intervention announcement between bands, The volume operated in the cash segment was US $ 611,351 million and in futures of US $ 1,968 million. In this regard, the economist Gabriel Caamaño of Outlier He said: “Despite the intervention announcement, the volume in futures will be maintained high, overcoming the US $ 2,000 million. Clearly, it would have been higher, with greater intervention needs, if the treasure did not go out with the announcement that came out“
As they reviewed from ADCAPthe future dollar contracts presented mixed movements, but after noon a curve was observed with a clear break from the January 2026 contract, with casualties in the contracts prior to January and you climb from that point onwards. “This movement was greatly explained by how the intervention was focused on the BCRA today, concentrating a large part of its fire power In the short section of the curvetrying to keep the implicit below 40% to remove pressure from the spot, “they revealed from this same report.
In this place, the volume operated climbed to U $ 2,500 million last week And the open interest reached US $ 7,950 million. In fact, the Central’s Saver Position is around US $ 6,000 million, according to the various market projections. It should be noted that The top that the BCRA has to intervene in futures reaches up to US $ 9,000 million.
Source: Ambito
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