Given the sale of Treasury dollars, the fear for the payment of the debt grows: $ 6.8 billion here to January expires

According to the estimates of the CP consultancy, Between September and January the maturities of the public debt accumulate about US $ 6,800 million; U $ 2,500 million for debt with international organizations (net of already scheduled disbursements) YU $ 4.3 billion for the “Deadline” with private creditors of bonars and global titles in January.

Those almost US $ 7,000 million are added the US $ 3,300 million that the Government would lack today to fulfill the Reserve goal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) December, an objective that was already reviewed down a few months ago after the difficulties of the ruling party to add currencies to its coffers.

Taking into account the last history, it is feasible that there is flexibility in the goal with the IMF. However, the economic team is playing with fire since it not only does not accumulate reservations, as the IMF requests, but will now start selling, for which Every currency that loses will represent less capital to face public debt commitments.

“The net reserves will deepen their ‘red’; our estimate is that at 31/10 they will be in the -U $ s10,000 million, as the fund is measured. That harms the ability to pay in foreign currency and the country risk,” He warned Lorenzo Sigaut Gravinadirector of the consultant balances.

The Government sells the dollars you need to pay the debt

CP argues that the dynamics of country risk It is already reflecting a growing uncertainty regarding Argentine payment capacity. Indeed, the indicator, which measures the risk of local debt, marked the 898 basic points this Tuesday, record since April 10. “Whatever comes after October will have to be very different to moderately cover the missing dollars“. He warned Pablo Moldovandirector of the consultant.

For its part, from the Stock Exchange Bavsa highlighted in a report that the country risk is in the same level prior to the elimination of stocks for people human in April. In that context, they expressed that “the demand for financial dollars cannot be financed by the current account nor can it be for the return of the Treasury to the volunteer markets of international debt,” for which “The availability of currencies is again a critical point to be able to sustain the stabilization program“

An economic policy at the service of elections

For the coming months, the economist Jorge Neyro sees two possible stages. The first is a positivein which the government achieves a good electoral result in the eyes of the market, thus generating an improvement in the country risk and better conditions for the return to international debt markets, which would allow to pay both organisms and private bonds.

The other scenario contemplates an unavailable electoral result To freedom progresses, that would maintain financial tension. In that situation, the government should look for ways to achieve those resources. “It could resort to the dollars of the Central Bank, to the weights of the fiscal surplus or higher debt placements in pesos. It would be necessary to see how the revision of the fund is raised. But, a priori, the Government will surely continue to reduce the debt in dollars and will try to keep the financial climate for Argentina as much as possible,” he said.

The economist José Ignacio Bano It was more optimistic and He does not see complications to face the maturities of January, although he warned that “at some point they will have to open the capital markets in Argentina”. In addition, he added that the current country risk is more associated with a “political risk” than to an economic risk, since Argentina’s indicators as a debtor improved in recent months.

Different was Moldovan’s opinion, by capturing that, if it measures the debt in a consolidated way between the Treasury and the Central Bank, there is an increase of US $ 8,200 million during the presidency of Javier Milei. “After more than a year and a half, Argentina continues with reservation problems and did not reduce its debt position in dollars with the market significantly. It is a dynamic that weighs on the country risk and worries from face 2026“He said.

It is worth remembering that this Tuesday the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirnoconfirmed the intervention in the change market, something that the market already suspected, with the objective of “contributing to market liquidity and its normal operation.” Most analysts agree that it is a flying exclusively linked to the electoral context, but that can be expensive for the future if the direction is not corrected soon.