The BCRA re -sets the rate remunerated passive, which already touched a maximum from the end of the Lefis

Almost two months after the end of the Lefis, The Central Bank (BCRA) has been in consecutive weeks by setting a reference interest rate through paid liabilities. But it does not do it by passes, but through the “Simultaneous “(very short -term operations) in Byma. The initial intention of the monetary authority was to travel to a scheme of monetary aggregates, where the market defined the interest rate. However, that finally did not happen.

In fact, Already with a record in the volume of paid liabilities from the exit of the Lefisit can be concluded that the BCRA It is closer to a classic monetary policy scheme than of an aggregate regime. The central continues to set a reference level through the “simultaneous” wheel in Byma, where Absorb or inject pesos to align to the market with that rate.

Fairly, From the City they went to “Chicanar” to the monetary authority, directed by Santiago Bausili, maintaining that if every day he sets the rate (instead that it is controlled by the market), what becomes endogenous is the demand for money (instead of regulating the central).

This was expressed by the consulting firm 1816: “The liabilities’ remunerated stock in pesos (which today are the weights that sterilize via simultaneous) It reached $ 4.5 billion on Tuesday, being a relevant percentage of what the Lefi were two months ago. Post elections We assume that via simultaneous or other instrument The government will continue to set an interest rate considering how excessively volatile that was all financial dynamics. “

From the consultant they stressed that, In the period in which the “overnight” rate (one day) operated without floor or ceiling, the volatility was significantly greater than that observed in recent weekswhen the BCRA decided to intervene to set a reference level. “One of the consequences that the BCRA has agreed to re -relevant amounts of paid liabilities in pesos is that It becomes less indispensable to continue increasing lace in each tender of the Treasury (there could simply be ´Rollover´ less than 100% and that the central sterilizes the printed weights) “they recalled since 1816.

For Max Capitalthat the liabilities have reached a maximum from the end of the Lefis, “suggests that the BCRA is increasingly guiding the ´Overnight´ rate and managing the liquidity of the system through this channel, instead of resorting to an aggregate tightening of monetary aggregates or higher lace.” For this stockbroker, This approach is part of normal monetary policy operations and should contribute to reducing the volatility observed in recent months.

However, from the City they remember that, Almost two months after the elimination of the Lefis, the main argument of the government was that there were $ 16 billion one day, which implied a risk in the context prior to the election. However, they warn that, if at this time, The weights taken by the BCRA per “simultaneous” wheel are added, plus the hiking operations in Byma and A3 (former Matba-Rofex), the total is around $ 14 billioncurrency flow placed one day and prior to the legislative election in PBA.

In dialogue with scope, economist Jorge Neyro said “The return of paid liabilities evidenced that the disarmament of Lefis, without a short -term instrument that allowed banks to channel their surpluses with some profitability, was not successful. That absence generated strong volatility in short -term interest rates and, in some way, the government ended up backing, reintroducing passive passes to provide some stability at high levels.”

For the expert, this situation “It is an implicit recognition that the scheme without short -term instruments was not working well “. And, “probably, after the elections the BCRA will have to make some type of adjustment,” he finished.

Rate: what is the current floor that the BCRA imposed on the market

The BCRA marked a “simultaneous” 45% annual “as published Econviewswhich generated that The peso curves move upwards, but with more impact on the nominal fixed rate segment, than in that of CER.

“The only bonds that moved significantly upwards were the TX25 and Tzxo5, the others remained at slightly higher levels, but similar to those of Tuesday. In the Lecaps and Boncaps curve the increases were much more pronounced in the shortest part and already almost all letters and bonds until February 2026 quote over 4% Tem“They explained from this report.

As to The Tamar rate, on Tuesday, showed a strange behavior since it fell quite up to 58.44% from 67% on Monday. “It is striking that the majority of the bank deadline rates did not differ so much in the last two wheels and seems to be awarded specifically to a particular measurement of Tamar. However, the active banks of banks also fell into the measurement of Tuesday so we are not sure why those movements were given and we will follow them closely,” they closed.