Shuffle back
The market consensus is that, yes or yes, a stabilization program will be needed. The announced sales of dollars from the Treasury have described it as the “strawberry of dessert”, which was missing in this eggplant of the central and treasure bank. Everyone knows that what is being seen in monetary and financial matters, and not to speak exchange, is transitory, much longer the variables can be maintained as they are.
There was much talk in all face -to -face meetings and virtual meetings about the lack of planning and the growing improvisation of the economic team, so everything that was happening in economic and financial matters was not only Risk “K”the last weeks left A taste that something is not working and this results in the stagnation of the level of activity, the fall in trust and the increase in country risk. Along these lines, a former BCRA today a macro reference of the City, did not hesitate to anticipate that some post -elections comes. He criticized the diagnosis of the economic team that everything is the fault of the electoral climate (and the risk k).
He communed with several colleagues, none of them could be said that it is muddy for populism rather related to official ideas, that the dollar at $ 1,300 does not look like a balance. What they say is that the problem, self -generated, to unleash the demand for currencies by people does not support this rhythm of treasure, tourism and “rulo” (puree) forces to change. Will restrictions or limitations come to purchase? We will see, because the IMF did not expect that raising the stocks would be without any fence, especially for the great operations, as there was in the era of Cambiemos.
Political crisis in the government of Milei
Speaking of the electoral political momentum, in a table full of operators of several crises, even some survivors of the CRAC of Lehman, with arrival in La Rosada, the crisis that the social networks of the Government was going through, which do not know how to react and respond to the debacle generated by the audios and the Spagnuolo scandal.
A group of financial and treasurers who chose not to travel to Bariloche to the annual meeting was discussed about the juncture with two very required economists in these days. They explained that less than two months after the medium mandate elections, the government has sinned of optimism about the “dollar-tassa” balance necessary to continue using the exchange rate as an anchor without stocks, also without having reservations (forcing the program with the fund by not buying dollars), without access to the credit market and above with a large mountain of maturities of the treasure pesos.
In the end they all paid attention to the “Toto” and bought such a champion. Now without stocking all the demand for the financial dollar of the companies found counterpart in the supply of dollars of treasury of the people. Of course, a seasoned in these lides pointed out that this business is only for those who have access to the wholesale dollar to make the famous “rulo”, which in July explained 40% of treasury. And now all the mess unleashed with the disarmament of the Lefi, among other herbs, is in the hands of the brutal monetary squeeze, of the rude intervention in the futures market and now in the spot, although they explained at a table, so far they take it on the “toto”, what it puts they take it out. They speak of a well of illiquidity in the area of $ 1,360.
The truth is that the bricks that the minister puts does not discourage appetite. Some remember the wall that Sturzenegger put on billions of dollars a day and at the end of the wheel there was not a penny. On the position of futures in the A3 (ROFEX/MAE), one of the economists recalled that before the agreement with the IMF it was about US $ 3,500 million and after the end of August it exceeded the US $ 7,000 million with positions in almost US $ 1,350 million in December and more than US $ 1,400 million in May 2026, having as its protagonist the BCRA.
They know that the oven is not for buns, in electoral year, another Black Swan like that of coimas enhances risks. This economic program sketch, which only aims to control the dollar with demential interest rates and crazed rises in the lace, reflects that the only strategy is to put the helmet in the trench and endure until October 26.
Milei Spagnuolo
Archive
All bet on the government losing little in Buenos Aires and winning the national, hoping that the decomprime country risk and the interest rate will normalize. That is why all houses expectations of a program emphasis after the elections, with a readjustment of the exchange bands and a credible path of accumulation of reserves to a higher dollar, with a new agreement with the fund with more normal interest rates, in the words of these experts.
Then, the generalized doubt is raised: if in the end they emphasize, the expectations can be anchored if they buy dollars without replacing capital controls and lowering the country risk to renew the maturities in dollars and on top of extending the deadlines of the debt in pesos without contaminating the balance sheets of the banks, or, the experiment does not end well as in 2017.
The disappointing Experience Macri is still so a flower from investors so that every scenario projected by the market retraces the events of the management of Cambiemos. At another meeting, Reusche’s sayings (Moody’s) commented on a debate in which he pondered the tax adjustment, rarely seen in history, which generates all kinds of volatility, but that reserves are not accumulating as expected with such adjustment.
On the output of the stocks and the flotation he warned that the flexibility of the exchange rate is welcome, but the exchange regime imposes certain restrictions when having these bands, since if the dollar goes up a lot that forces to intervene and more reservations are lost and that could be something dangerous; And he said that foreign investors are looking for another approval, in this case the elections, in the list of slopes that they see and is something that can collaborate with improving the credibility of the government.
While closed positions with a view to Buenos Aires elections a counterpoint among shares -loving waiters showed that the index Merval In dollars, adjusted by US inflation, it arrives very beaten in its annual return of -32%, which contrasts with the evolution it had in other electoral periods, especially when the elections were only in the middle of the middle. Although they acknowledged that it was difficult to be constructive with some assets, especially banks, but to position themselves bought for the elections there were some interesting alternatives. To do this, they analyzed how the Variable Income for the legislative elections of Buenos Aires that can condition the market management in the coming weeks.
Thus they calculated the Merval in CCL they saw what happened in electoral years from the beginning of the year to the election: taking 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2023 where there were only mid -term elections (the ruling party had two years of management), in 2019, 2021 and 2023 the Variable Income reached the elections with a positive annual return, on the other hand, in 2017 it fell 7%. The evolution of the Variable Income after elections, counting every year, is very influenced by 2019, so that so that this year’s trend is that of 2017 or 2021 after the elections should occur an electoral result that today would not be the one that marks the surveys, nor the one that is in prices. Thus they focused on the ADRs and detected that in past elections they arrived with values of different technical indicators (both price and volume) on values that are not similar to the current ones (for some assets), and seeing the 2025 see that Supervielle and Edenor are the most punished companies for the relevant indicators. Given the level of interest rates and despite recent punishment it does not seem appropriate to have a position in banks, on the other hand, if you have to take a position before Buenos Aires elections, electricity looks better. Of course, everything depends on the appetite to risk.
For now, you breathe more caution air. Another colleague came with some gossip, above all, from Wall Street, and gave a respite to the local stock market analysis: it seems that breakfast was very entertaining at the Argentine consulate in New York among Argentine professionals operating in New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts. They were from the game Darío López (Dal Commercial Capital), Horacio Bernal (BDO), Eduardo Márquez (JP Morgan) and Santiago Persano (Bank of America). The next EMTA forum on Argentina is also said in a few more days in New York where the last political agitation will be discussed, from the filtered tapes to the results of the elections of the province of Buenos Aires, with a view to the national intermediate elections, the exchange policy, exports and evidence of international credit markets will be reviewed. They have already confirmed their participation: Armando Armenta (Alliance Bernstein), Pablo Goldberg (Blackrock), Lucas Martin (Bofa Securities) and Roberto Sifon-Arevalo (S&P Global Ratings.
About the mention “Carry Trade” He commented that EMEA performance remains firm and Latin America shows a marked divergence, where exchange coverage pressure increases. He explained, according to the vision of BNY experts, that the least aggressive tone adopted by the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, in Jackson Hole has not been beneficial for the Carry Trade de Currencos; They believe that most central banks of emerging markets will interpret this change as greater flexibility to adjust their policies, rather than a greater expansion of monetary policy differentials. Now, it is not only the fed rates trajectory that presses the dollar, but, if the net result is a weaker dollar and lower import prices, nominal rates could begin to fall back into the fourth quarter for many high -performance currencies.
In contrast, Latin American currencies are selling and their performance gap against EMEA is at its highest point this year, led by Mexico and Brazil.
Source: Ambito
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