Amid the exchange volatility and a few weeks of the elections, investors seek to cover in dollars. Sovereign bonds under foreign law, local bonars, Boppreals of the Central Bank and corporate negotiable obligations offer different risk and return combinations for moderate and aggressive profiles.
In the current Argentine electoral scenario, investors look for solid alternatives to protect their portfolios in dollars in the face of exchange volatility. Within the options menu, Sovereign bonds under foreign legislation known as global, bonars governed by Argentine Law, Boppreals and corporate negotiable obligations offer different levels of risk and return that allow building diversified strategies of coverage and performance.
Global bonds issued under New York Law represent the most defensive segment. Foreign jurisdiction grants greater legal certainty and explains its lowest yields compared to titles under local law. Today the GD30 yields 14.68%, the GD35 by 13.12%and the GD41 13.03%. They are chosen by investors that prioritize legal stability and medium and long term exposure, although their country sensitivity and the lowest liquidity in some sections of the curve constitute weaknesses to take into account.
In contrast, Bonares under Argentine law offer higher yields in compensation to lower legal protection. The Al29 yields 17.9%, the AL30 16.4%and the Al41 13.67%, while the AE38 is around 15%–16%. Its main attraction lies in the largest IRR, sought by investors with a more aggressive profile, although its exposure to local normative and political risk limits its potential as defensive instruments.
The Bopreal, issued by the Central Bank, they constitute a particular alternative within the debt in dollars. Unlike traditional sovereign bonds, Its main function is to offer coverage against exchange volatility and at the same time act as a monetary policy instrument. Currently, the BPO28 pays 13.09%, the BPOA7 5.05%and the BPB7D 6.35%. While some sections have more moderate yields, they are sought by investors seeking dollars within a framework regulated by the monetary authority itself, which gives them a different dynamic to that of sovereign debt under foreign or local law.
The political panorama is decisive for all these assets. If the National Government consolidates a triumph in the elections of September 7 and ratifies it in the October elections, the country risk could pierce the 450 basic points. This would imply a rise in the price of the bonds and a decline in their IRR, since the perception of risk would be reduced, and enable conditions for Argentina to access the global markets of private debt. This scenario is closely followed by investors, as it would mark a structural change in financing perspectives.
In addition to the sovereign and provincial titles, the Corporate negotiable obligations in dollars They offer interesting alternatives for those who seek diversification in strategic sectors of the real economy. Among them, the MSCI Energy (RUCDD) stands with a 12.24 %IRP, aimed at more aggressive profiles due to its high performance and greater sector exposure. The YPF (YM37D) ON, with a 6.91 % and expiration tir in 2037, is attractive for long -term moderate profiles, backed by the strategic position of the state oil company in the energy market. Oil & Gas Vista, with the ON VSCTD at 8.26 %, represents a commitment to the expansion of Vaca Muerta, while Telecom, with the on TLCMD at 8.56 %, reflects the importance of the telecommunications sector and its potential in connectivity and technology.
The spectrum is completed with others ONS OF LEADING COMPANIES OF THE ARGENTINE MARKET that even more diversify the corporate risk: Pampa Energía (MGCND) to 6.44 %, PAN American Energy (PNXCD) to 7.16 %, Argentine 2000 Airports (ARC1D) at 7.50 %, IRSA (IRCPD) to 8.12 %, Arcor (RCCRD) to 5.59 %and MASTELLONE (MTCGD) at 9.69 %. Each of these companies represents a key sector, from energy and food to Real Estate and infrastructure, reinforcing the relevance of these instruments such as dollar coverage.
In conclusion, the moderate profile investor has a range of instruments that combine profitability and coverage in hard currency. Sovereign bonds under foreign law offer defensiveness, the bonars greater return with greater risk, the bopreal an intermediate point, and the corporate ONS exposure to strategic sectors. The result of the elections will define the immediate course: a country risk reduction and an eventual return to global markets could enhance the valuation of bonds, consolidating the attractiveness of the Argentine debt at a time when the dollar coverage is essential.
Financial Analyst- Exembujador of the International Forum of the BRICS + Municipalities in Argentina
Source: Ambito
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