The country risk exceeded 900 points before the investment nervousness for Buenos Aires elections

The country risk exceeded 900 points and touched its highest level in almost 5 months, while lace Argentine actions closed disparate this Friday at Wall Street. Meanwhile, S&P Merval advanced in pesos, but fell into dollarscompared to the maximum caution investment in the last day before the legislative elections in the Province of Buenos Aires.

He Leading BYMA panel won 0.4% to 1.997,624.37 units, but measured in dollars yielded 0.3% to 1,436 points.

They led the advances of the day, the actions of Telecom (+3.1%), Metrogas (+3.1%); and Supervielle Group (+2.8%).

In Wall Street, meanwhile, the ADRS They quoted mixed, with increases headed by Supervielle Group (+1.9%); IRSA (+1.9%); and Telecom (+1.8%). At the far end, Port Central lost 1.8%, and Loma Negra, 1.6%.

The salts trader of IEB Group, Nicolás Cappellahe indicated that this was “A wheel in which it is difficult to draw a conclusion about the Mood on the market”since this “wait to pay and the disparity of surveys makes it difficult to anticipate the result of Sunday.” In that sense, he understands that This Friday a pessimistic position prevailed regarding the result of the ruling party.

From SBS group They pointed out that on this last day prior to the legislative elections in PBA, the eye went through “the dynamics of the main macro variables”, with the novelty known last Thursday, that Treasury deposits in dollars in the BCRA yielded US $ 238 million on the announcement of its participation in the Mulc.

Also, taking into account the variation of deposits in pesos and using the exchange rate of that day, They estimated that Tuesday’s intervention was around US $ 200 million. “During yesterday, several market sources pointed to another day of high participation of the Treasury in the Mulc via sales, something that will have to officially corroborate with the BCRA series in a few days,” they added.

“The closer we are from the elections in the province of Buenos Aires, It is logical that volatility increases for local assets, especially for Variable Income“They warned from Personal Investor Portfolio (PPI).

Bonds and Risk Country

On the other hand, Dollar bonds closed mixed, with increases of up to 1% (global 2035) and falls of up to 1% (bonar 2029).

The last data of country risk (EMBI, prepared by JP Morgan) on Thursday, September 4 showed a value of 901 basic points and threw a 0.6% setback with respect to the previous registration, to mark a New maximum from April 8.

In this regard, the economist and director of CP Consultor, Pablo Moldovanhe said to Scope that, In current values, the country risk implies that Argentina has no chance of accessing credit marketsand this generates many implications in the economic program of the Government, which already needs to be released the load maturity load that you must face in these years.

“Without being able to roll that debt, the economic program will have to face a higher exchange rate to buy dollars, which is a large complication”he added. In turn, the specialist remarked that the country risk is expressed in the fragile situation in external terms of the Argentine economy, in addition to the government does not do so well in the next elections.

Facing October, Moldovan understands that it will be difficult to see a decline in the economic indicator, and that if this does not happen after the electoral instance, the situation will be “quite complex” and It will require some definition by the government and, surely, of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

For its part, the economist Gustavo Ber He argued that this level of country risk, above the 900 basic points, could be an attractive point of entry in the medium term to reach better political signals in the local sand.