The market makes its bets: the three possible scenarios for the election in the province of Buenos Aires and how to cover

He Government It has two Technical stops What to do if you want to solve your economic plan. The first will be this Sunday when Buenos Aires citizens attend the polls to choose the new provincial legislators. The situation in which they arrive is difficult: to the scandal of alleged corruption in Andisadds The last setback in Congress that managed to turn the veto to the emergency in disability. In addition, the drowned springs that Santiago Bausili, at the head of the BCRA, and Luis “Toto” Caputo in the Treasury, are carrying out to control the dollar and try to stabilize interest rates Nor do they collaborate to the general crisis of the ruling.

In fact the image of Javier Milei It is spending its worst time from the beginning of the management and The complaints of corruption have already become a problem for the administration of freedom advances. The Government arrives with many inmates, knowing that the Buenos Aires land is historically Peronist, but it is played to achieve a limited margin that air in the face of October. Today a base or moderate scenario is that freedom progresses (lla) loses between 2% and 5%an optimistic is that this gap is reduced to 2% or there is a virtual technical tie and a bad scenario is more than 5% difference.

“Optimistic” scenario for the Government: tight defeat

If the Front Freedom advances (lla) is less than two percentage points of country force for the majority of the City this “It would be interpreted as a favorable result for national ruling”. In fact, the ill -fated economic plan would have a trusted injection that would give it an extra push for October.

For Gustavo AraujoHead of Research of Criteria“We believe that market reading would be that the economic plan maintains sufficient political support to face structural reforms and project an eventual return to volunteer debt markets. The social support would reinforce confidence until October, reducing pressure on the main economic and financial variables “.

In this scenario, for this expert, the assets that look more attractive are those linked to “Macro-Trade” of medium and long term. “The convergence of the Argentine sovereign curve could be accelerated to its comparable credit quality, where the global ones look like the main winners. Within them we identify value in the long section of the curve, highlighting the GD35 and GD41 as the most attractive options“He said.

“Similarly, the accumulated correction in the Variable Income this year would leave room for a rebound, especially in the energy sector and in the banks. Finally, given the current level of prices and fees, the CER curve and fixed long -term rate offers value opportunities in the face of significant compression of yields in this scenario,” said Arau.

In turn, Matías Waitzelpartner of At investmentsalso agreed to mention that a positive scenario “is a tight defeat” of 2% or less. “This would give political support to the economic plan, greater predictability macro,” he said and assured that he sees value in, this scenario, in the long global (GD35, AE38), energy actions and banks (such as YPF, Pamp, Supv, Ggal, BMA), “It is also an opportunity in fixed long -term weights,” he expanded.

Base or neutral scenario: the ruling party loses up to 5%

“Pessimism is notorious in the pre -election climate, investors seem to have adopted the position of paying to see and are cautious. A victory scenario, draw or defeat by a limited margin satisfies market expectation, which awaits a defeat around 5 percentage points “they assured from Invest in the stock market (IEB).

This “neutrality” scenario is shared by most of the City’s voices. They detail it from Max Capital: “The massive sale of assets suggests that the electoral fears and the dissemination of illegal listening recordings to government officials begin. According to our estimates, using the exchange rate and bond prices, bond prices, The continuity is valued at 68% around 2027, something consistent with an advantage of 3 points nationwide in October and a defeat of around 4 to 5 points in the province of Buenos Aires, which now became the neutral scenario. “

For Araujo, if this scenario is the one that finally happens, “The government would try to sustain the disinflation path with exchange stability, maintaining a discretionary and less predictable monetary policy, which would maintain an environment of very high real rates, but with less political margin“. For this expert there would also be an increase in discretion and regulatory changes could affect the credibility of the government program.

What to invest in this scenario? For Criteria: In the short section of the Lecaps curve, where the risk-background binomial is more favorable to the October elections, who want to stretch “duration”, in the cer bonds of the middle section with expiration in 2026 and 2027 and to see 9% -10%.

For its part, from At investmentsthe look is similar: “In this scenario we see exchange volatility and high real rates, with greater discretion of economic policy. We favor short lecaps for the part of weights and reduce exposure in sovereigns and actions and position themselves in Ons.”

The worst scenario that the City sees: lla is defeated by more than 5%

“A difference greater than five points would mark an adverse political scenario for the ruling party. The market could interpret a defeat of that caliber as a weakening of the ability to sustain the economic direction and increase the pressure on the prices of local assets. The probability of a reactive turn in monetary and exchange policy would grow, “said Araujo, who stated that, in this case, The defensive strategy would go through prioritizing liquidity in dollars and minimizing exposure to local assets, waiting for more clarity on economic and political direction.

For Waitzel, this scenario would generate greater pressure on local assets and there would be risks of economic policy turn. “You have to raise a defensive strategy: dollar liquidity, ON, or offshore assets,” he closed.