For the rise in delinquency, banks harden controls and reinforce the “early alerts”

In recent days, several banking clients received messages like this: “We want to help you, that’s why we offer you the possibility of financing the total of your consumptions that still did not defeat.”. Far from being an isolated gesture, the initiative reflects the reaction of financial entities in the face of a phenomenon that worries: the increase in delinquency in families, product of the fall of the real salary and the rise of fees. In this framework, banks with greater exposure to individual clients They already began to reinforce their “early alert” strategies.

According to official data released by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), in June the delinquency ratio of the financial system reached the 5.2%a level similar to that registered during the pandemic. For its part, the Ecogo consultancy, directed by Marina Dal Poggetto and Sebastián Menescaldi, He revealed that cases of irregularity in the portfolios of financial entities practically doubled, going from 7.4% in November 2024 to 14.2% last June. In non -banking entities, 14.2% are delinquently.

The rise in non -compliance levels is already having an impact on the credit supply, which led banks to show greater care and selectivity at the time of approving new loans. Some entities are also rehearsing new strategies to contain delinquency. Among them are the refinancing of credit card balances And the possibility of access personal loans with more competitive rates, A measure that is under analysis in some banks.

The delinquency according to the lines

“The delinquency went through two or three stages in the last two years. First, at the beginning of the government of Javier Milei, with the exchange rate rise. Then, the credit growth allowed the default to be reduced. But as of February-March this year it recurred again, moving from 2%/2.5% to 5% throughout the system,” said a banking source.

However, it should be detail what happens in each segment. Today banks do not record delinquency in Mortgage credits or in corporate clients. However, in the latter case, the recent rise of rates influenced many companies to choose not to take new debt.

Where delinquency did grew in the Personal loans and consumption on credit cards. In fact, consumer loans fell in the last two months – June and July – according to official data, while in August he recorded a slight growth. This decrease is linked, both with the deceleration of consumption, as with the growing difficulty of homes to fulfill their financial commitments.

In the macroeconomic plane, the indebtedness of families in relation to the internal gross product (GDP) reached the 5.35% At present, approaching the historical maximum of 6.25%, registered in January 2018.

The panorama of Non -bank credit It is even more challenging: according to echoing, the delinquency in this segment went from 2.9% in December 2023 to 5.2% in June 2024with spikes up 39.6% irregularity in some digital banking and non -traditional entities.

The impact of rates rise and “revolving” on credit cards

“The salary ceased to grow. In the cards, the rates remain high, although the increase in interest in the` Revolving` was not yet fully reflected. The real expense began to weigh more in homes. The largest banks, with greater exposure to individual clients, are those that show the highest dwelling levels, up to 6%, “said a source of the financial system.

The “bank revolving” refers to the use of the credit card when, when the summary arrives, the entire balance is not canceled or the minimum payment is chosen. The pending amount is automatically financed the next month with interest. Thus, the accumulated balance is recalculated month by month until it is paid in its entirety. From May 2024, after the “A” communication 8026 of the Central Bank, the entities were enabled to freely set the rate of this financingwithout regulatory stop. During the pandemic, on the other hand, the BCRA had limited the “revolving” to an annual nominal rate of 122% for balances of up to $ 200,000, in an attempt to contain the default that then reached its historical maximums.

A partial relief for debtors is that the rise in “revolving” has a “deferred effect”: the full impact is perceived only three months after the system reference rate is adjusted.

Anyway, In banks they admit that the situation generates concern. While delinquency does not yet compromise balances, entities recognize that they should have become more proactive in customer monitoring, offering more adapted financing alternatives and limiting exposure to excessive risks. “We have to be very responsible when granting credit. With these fees, who take financing are usually very tight and, in many cases, they will not be able to pay. That is a problem for both the client and the bank,” concluded a source of the sector in dialogue with Scope.