The market prepares to know the production and inflation prices of August, decisive for the Federal Reserve. Investors debate between a cut of 25 or 50 basic points in September, while Oracle shoots thanks to their cloud prospects.
Wall Street It is prepared for a mixed sign session this Wednesday, with an eye on the inflation data that will be known in the next few hours and that will be decisive to mark the course of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FED). At the same time, Oracle stars in the day with UAN rises of 30% in the Premarket, driven by its growth prospects in the cloud business.
The macroeconomic agenda of the day includes the publication of the production price index (IPP) of August. The consensus expects the general rate to remain at 3.3% year -on -year, While the underlying retraced slightly, from 3.7% to 3.5%. However, the most anticipated data will come tomorrow, when the consumer price index (CPI) of August is disseminated. Analysts expect that general inflation registers a rebound to 2.9% compared to 2.7% of the previous month, while the nucleus would remain unchanged around 3.1%.
“American inflation closer to 3% of the expected represents a risk that not the entire market has discounted ”They warned from Bankinter, remembering that investors are especially sensitive after the downward review of the employment figures between April 2024 and March 2025.
With this backdrop, The looks are directed to the Fed meeting on September 17. According to the CME Group Fedwatch tool, the markets already assign a probability of 89.8% to the Central Bank deciding a 25 basic points cut. However, some market participants speculate even with a reduction of 50 basic points, although most analysts consider that option is less likely.
For Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote Bank’s senior analyst“The stronger inflation is, the more slowly the Fed will advance in the rate cuts cycle, And that could cool the enthusiasm of the investors that today celebrate the weakness of the labor market as an excuse to accelerate the casualties. ”In the same line, from Link Securities they indicate that, if inflation is consolidated around 3%, It will be very difficult for the Fed to execute the rate of rate reductions that a part of the market discounts.
In contrast, Ing Economics strategists are more optimistic and consider that even if the CPI surprises up, the Fed will cut the reference rate in September and continue with steps of additional 25 points in October and December.
Lisa Cook, in the center of the scene
The Fed was also the protagonist in the institutional level. Judge Jia Cobb, from the Columbia district, issued a temporary restriction order to prevent the dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook while the lawsuit he filed against his dismissal is progressed. According to the magistrate, “the public interest in the independence of the Federal Reserve weighs in favor of the reincorporation of Cook” and stressed that the official “demonstrated that her expulsion violated the ‘for the cause’ provision of the Federal Reserve Law.”
The case, however, is far from resolving, since the US government plans to appeal And everything indicates that it will be the Supreme Court that will have the last word.
Lisa Cook
In the Corporate Front, Oracle shoots around 30% in pre -opening thanks to its solid perspectives linked to new cloud contracts. This happens despite the fact that the technological failed to achieve income and benefits estimates in its results of the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
Source: Ambito
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