Argentina’s bonds fall on the stock market
At the moment, The shortest bonds (at/gd 29-30) are negotiated with an internal return rate (IRR) of approximately 20%while the longest (at/GD 35-38-41) operate with a 15%yield, almost the same values as a year ago. In comparison, the sovereign debt of Russia and Ukraine It provides a profitability between 9% and 13%.
“Once again, not even the less optimistic pollster approached the result, which shows that Measuring conurbano humor is a practically impossible task. Being honest, the market was also wrong. Despite the recent price weakness, this ‘queue risk’ was not prices, “they mentioned since Personal investments portfolio.
Opportunity in the midst of the crisis?
According Justina Gedikianbond strategist Cohen financial alliesthe impact on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange was due to the fact that the adverse result of the ruling party in the PBA elections complicates the panorama towards the legislative of October.
“With a weakened ruling, The market already incorporates a greater risk premiumreflected in sovereign bonds that yield between 14% and 20% IRR, depending on the deadline and legislation. These levels reflect the greatest distrust of the sustainability of the economic program, in a context in which the chances of a favorable result for the ruling party look further. In this framework, The electoral trace could begin to lose tractionwhile the result in PBA configures a high floor for Peronism and conditions expectations for October to Lla, “said the executive.
However, the financial operator and advisor Germán Marin He explained that, if the government achieves a good election in October, it can be found in the current prices of Argentina’s bonds “A good opportunity to monopolize a recovery of the parities that return them to 11/12%” of IRR.
“Otherwise, a more complex scenario could be configured that backed them on 25/28%. For a moderate profile, position with 10% of the portfolio in sovereigns seems reasonable, and going back down based on scenarios That, for now, they will depend basically on October, “he added.
Source: Ambito
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