The analysis, prepared by Quantum Financethe consultant founded by former Secretary of Financing Daniel Marx, warned that all these countries face “very complex economic or social situations.” In addition, remember that, since the beginning of the year until mid -August, the average daily country of Argentina was 708 basic points (7.08%). The indicator began the year about 600 points and arrived on Thursday – last data prior to the report – 1,020 points.
The document emphasizes that the high volatility of Argentine assets responds to internal factors and not to a general deterioration of sovereign emerging debt, which in most cases recorded country risk falls in recent months. The doubts, he explains, are focused on the Capacity of the economy to accumulate reservations, the evolution of the exchange rate and the maturities of debt in foreign currency.
To this fragility was added the Buenos Aires electoral result, to which Javier Milei’s own government had granted great relevance, “nationalizing” the effect of defeat and worsening expectations on October legislative elections. An adverse result in these elections would complicate the political scenario for the ruling party, which has based a good part of its strategy on the use of presidential vetoes, a tool that would lose effectiveness in case of a legislative setback.
Quantum underlines As a unique feature of the Argentine situation, the negative slope of the yield of yield: the shortest bonus, the GD29, 18% annually, while the longest bonus, the GD46, yields 14.7%. This shows that investors are more pessimistic about the immediate future than over the long term.
“Overcoming the uncertainty that reflects the current economic and political context and reaching balances in monetary matters, exchange and defining mechanism for accumulation of reserves, in addition to ratifying the fiscal policy, it will allow the portfolio movements to be oriented towards a greater demand for Argentine bonds,” the report said.
Argentine bonds: strong maturities are coming for the coming months
However, the economic consultant warned that the challenge is complex. He recalled that in January and July 2026, capital payments and interest interests in foreign currency with private creditors have expired for a total of US $ 4,500 million on each date and that the total amount of maturities of 2026 amounts to $ S14,000 million, including the Becra Bopreal payments. Therefore, consider knowing the strategy of the Treasury and the Central Bank against these commitments, Taking into account that currently the treasure maintains deposits for US $ 1,070 million in the BCRA.
A current complex panorama for the Government
On the exchange front, the most worrying fact of the week was Friday, when the dollar Bank Nation reached a record of $ 1,465, very close to the ceiling of the exchange band. The official exchange rate closed the week with a rise of $ 98, which implies an advance of 7.2%.
On the political level, the government faced greater tightening of the opposition. Governors who in the first months had shown dialoguists – like those of Córdoba, Santa Fe, Corrientes and Jujuy – expressed their discomfort and were shown together with former presidential candidate Juan Schiaretti. The governor of Corrientes, Gustavo Valdés, was particularly critical: “I am tired of going to Buenos Aires, to the Government, and who attend to me third -line officials,” he said.
Meanwhile, the economic team announced that it will reduce the intensity of the monetary adjustment to reactivate credit and allow banks to have greater availability of weights to finance companies.
Source: Ambito
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