The 2025 projection for the TCN implies a rise of almost 30% throughout the year (it is currently 43.7%, until Monday), above 24.5% annual inflation estimated for December.
The Government set the budget project 2026 a key assumption for the market: the Wholesale nominal exchange rate (TCN). According to the official document, the dollar will close December 2025 at $ 1,325although it is currently well above those levels, regulating even the ceiling of the exchange band ($ 1,473.40).
The 2025 projection for the TCN implies a almost 30% rise Throughout the year (it is currently 43.7%, until Monday), above 24.5% annual inflation estimated for December. In other words, the economic team not only rules out a discreet jump of the exchange rate, but also anticipates a exchange appreciation In the stage after the October elections, something that the market currently assigns low probabilities.
Budget: Government estimates on the exchange rate
For December next year, in turn, the ruling party estimates that the price of the dollar will be still lower than the current value and that inflation will continue to slowly slowly. Specifically, the Expected official wholesale exchange rate is $ 1,423 by the end of 2026that is, a nominal increase of just 7.4% for next year. In turn, the official forecast for the variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 10.1%.
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Just for the end of 2027, the exchange rate would reach the levels in which it is currently: $ 1,470, to ends of 2028, it would be $ 1,488, levels close to those achieved by the MEP and CCL this Monday.
The guideline confirms the strategy of a Very moderate exchange slidingin line with the aim of consolidating the decrease in inflation.
Dollar, to the edge of the band of the band
The exchange market crosses moments of definition, six weeks after October legislative elections. The official dollar went up last Monday by Sixth consecutive wheel and closed only 0.4% of the band’s roofin a climate of growing uncertainty among investors due to the political and economic direction of the government. For its part, at the Nation Bank the retail ticket closed to $ 1,475, while the CCL ended up from $ 1,500.
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The wholesaler closed at $ 1,467, only $ 6.40 (0.4%) from the band’s upper ceiling. The volume operated in the cash segment was US $ 441.5 million, above the US $ 388.6 million last Friday.
“Nothing was operated in the bandand the reality is that Offer always appeared below the price, but the market is getting closer and more to test the band. It will be key to see what happens if this happens, “they said from the market.
Source: Ambito
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