Bofa’s latest Global Survey shows the greatest optimism since February, with long positions at seven months and expectations of rising growth.
The latest global survey to Bank of America (Bofa) managers shows that optimism dominates the stage again, although with a clear warning: a record of 58% of respondents believe that global share markets are overvaluedjust above 57% in August. In contrast, only 10% believe that bond markets have overvaluation.
The report reveals the most bullish moment since February, with low cash levels, Long positions for variable income in seven months maximum and greater optimism about global growth. The most ample measurement of Bofa’s feeling – which combines cash levels, allocation to variable income and growth expectations – climbed to 5.4 points from 4.5 in August, reaching its highest level in seven months. Global growth expectations jumped to 25%, reversing the pessimism last month, when 41% net anticipated a slowdown.}
Fund managers closely follow inflation, a weak dollar and rates
The managers point out that the positive vision relies on the end of the commercial war, the beginning of the cuts of interest rates and the rebound of the yields of the bonds. However, they do not lose sight of the risks: 26% of participants see a second wave of inflation as the main risk of tailwhile 24% fear that the Federal Reserve loses independence and the dollar suffers a devaluation. The fear that the trade war causes a global recession has been drastically reduced: only 12% indicate it as the greatest risk, compared to 29% who did it in August.
The survey also shows that the Divergence between expectations of short -term and inflation rates continues to expand. Just 6% expect higher rates, in line with the average of the last six months, but the percentage that anticipates the most inflation rose to 49% in 2025, from a minimum of 9% in September 2024. In addition, A Net of 23% of managers expects higher long -term types, the highest proportion since August 2022.
In the exchange front, 38% of respondents say they seek to increase their coverage against a weaker dollar, the highest level since June. At the same time, The percentage of those who do not plan to make changes in their currency coverage fell to 35%, the lowest so far this year.
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Changes in investment portfolios
Regarding the assignment of assets, September brought a greater appetite for actions, with special preference for the health sector, telecommunications and discretionary consumption.
The managers reduced positions in utilities, energy and actions of the United Kingdom and the European Union. In relation to history, the positioning is maintained in variable income, emerging markets, telecommunications and banks, while exposure to energy, US dollar, reits and effective is underpathed. A striking fact is that 39% of respondents maintain their gold exposure about 0%, Which suggests that precious metal is not seen today as a priority refuge.
Source: Ambito
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