Boppreales vs bonds Cer: the City is debated between the dilemma of pesos and dollars and prepares for October

In that context, Investment portfolios changed strategy: Those who already hurt the elections before the elections, rest and wait for almost without movements except liquidity management. While others, who maintained some positions in pesos, they rotated directly to the dollar or looking for assets that have been the least beaten “In case things go wrong.” In the world of variable income, the panorama is quite clear: those who invested in the Merval in dollars lost more than 40%in the year. For hard currency bonds, debt management by government and the country’s risk to 1,000 levels also complicate the panorama And it makes these titles even more volatile, only for aggressive investors whose new driver is an eventual Milei victory in October.

In this context, a City report that circulated these days a week after the elections, showed that in the fixed income segment, The Bopreal were the ones who registered less losses becoming highly defensive instruments Faced with others such as bonds in dollars, Lecaps, dual, CER and boats. But the CER are at attractive prices thinking for 2026.

CER, BREPREAL BONDS AND ARGENTINE RISK

Puente’s Research team said the instruments with the greatest resilience to exchange volatility according to their “view” are the bonds corporate and provincial. In the case of corporate debt, they clarify that “privileging emitters with high credit rating. Although corporate seem to be the most defensive, in terms of liquidity some provincials can also be an attractive option.” As for the sovereign curve, they propose that there will be “high volatility and uncertainty” while in the instruments in pesos, they warned that “The daily movements of the exchange rate can overcome the accrual in a month. ”

On the other hand, the financial advisor Gastón Lentini He raised to that medium that Argentina is with this country risk above 1,000 basic points, comparing with countries such as Nigeria, Palestine, Ukraine and Jamaica. “That means we are the most risky in the world,” he said. In that sense, he said that this is the level of risk that an investor runs when investing in a sovereign bonus. “In the future, the idea of ​​investing dollarizing and perhaps with common investment funds or Latin American bonds, until the election has passed, is the most conservative,” he said.

“Our recommendation goes in line with being more prudent, unless the investor is probably risky, because today buy sovereign bonds is that. Our idea has to do with dollarize, Beyond how appealing that bonds adjusted by inflation or fixed rate may seem“Lentini raised.

Erika Mildre Flores and Federico Victorio, Research and Cofounder of Andean Investments, They stated that the Bopreals today stand out as the most defensive alternative within dollarized universein front of the Hard Dollar bonds.

“These titles, issued by the BCRA and with expiration concentrated in the management of Milei, showed much more moderate falls than the traditional sovereign debt. The BPOD7 came to give up around 14% of IRR, a level that we consider exaggerated for a bonus that expires in this same mandate. For conservative or moderate profiles in dollars, the Boppreals are especially attractive: they pay in dollars, they maintain competitive rates, they maintain competitive rates, they maintain competitive rates. BCRA debt (super capitalized by the IMF loan), expire in this government management and reduce exposure to immediate reperfilating, which places them above the traditional sovereign debt in terms of resilience, “they argue.

In summary, of Andean investments they stated that “in order to” pass “the dollarized elections, they maintain recommendation on Bopreal (especially BPOD7) to cross the months before October and for a longer horizon, first -line ONS with a“ AAA ”credit rating such as Pampa (MGCMO), Vista (VSCVO), YPF (YM39O)” that have been left with very attractive rates later of these days of volatility. “

Finally, they add the Cedears alternative, which historically functions as an instrument of exchange coverage, with American value companies such as “BRKB, PEP and exposure to assets from emerging countries considering the Fed rates low cycle (EEM, EM, EWZ, FXI, view, among others),” they concluded.

Finally, Financial Advisor Nau Bernues stated that Both Bopreal and CER bonds are associated with a “different” risk.

“The BPY26, for example, is a title that the market is assigning a very low risk and quotes accordingly. I think that sovereigns can continue to have a lot Volatility is paid in performance. There we can find alternatives today in the market. Since closing 20% ​​real, or even if we believe that the Government will be airy of this panorama today, the instruments in fixed rate pesos present A great profitability measured in dollars if we believe that the ceiling of the exchange band will be maintained “Bernues said.

And he closed: “I particularly believe that at these dollar levels, and so close to the exchange band at least to the elections there is a lower associated risk of being in pesos (anyway I recommend it only for aggressive investors to assume the risk of exchange in Argentina). In this context and going a little longer the bonds hill look very attractive.”