HE He turned on a strong alert signal on the Argentine economy, according to a recent survey that showed that the probability that the country enters recession shot 98.61% in Augustin front of the 56.16% July. It is a jump of more than 42 percentage points in just one month, which coincides with the strong exchange tension and the Interest Supplies Validated by the economic team.
This is the data published by the Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT) University of the Leader Index (IL), allows anticipate turn points in the economic cycleshowing early output of an expansion phase and admission to a recessive. For its construction, ten monthly series are used that include data such as General Stock Exchange Indexhe Mervalhe Monetary aggregate M1, the soy fob price, Cars sales to dealerships, VAT collection, cement officehe Consumer Trust Index and the Industrial Production Indices For non -metallic minerals and steel.
He August result marks an abrupt change of tendency in the evolutionary graph of the indicator, that had shown stability in previous months: in May the probability was 57.08%, in June 56.16% and in July it remained at the same level. The August jump reflects, according to the UTDT, the negative synchronization of several key seriesalthough the document avoids offering a qualitative interpretation or forecasts outside the statistical level.
“The leading index summarizes information from variables that usually change the trend before the economy as a whole, allowing to anticipate with a certain degree of probability the moment in which the expansive cycle is abandoned,” says the report, which clarifies that its purpose is to serve as a tool for monitoring the economic cycle and decision making, without replacing the official diagnoses on recession.
The UTDT Finance Research Center remarks that the interpretation of the IL must be carried out within the conceptual framework of the business cycle and complement each other with other indicators. In addition, it warns that monthly variations They can be abrupt if the main components alter simultaneously, so it recommends observing both the individual movements of the series and the compound index.
With monthly update, the IL is used as a reference by banks, consultants, state monitoring areas and private economists. The new August measurement thus becomes a Early macroeconomic risk signal For the coming months.
Activity traffic light
As to draw a current radiography, it is observed that the Economic activity from the province of Buenos Aires marked a retraction of 1.4% In August, according to the latest data from the Pulseopba index. This was attributed, according to the officials in charge, to the hardening of the monetary conditions promoted by the Central Bankwhich is generating specific effects on the real economysuch as “the fall of credit, the deterioration of family income and a deepening of the recession.”
In addition, the private consumption Nor would he have pierced his best August, since he fell 3.2% monthly, according to the index the Faculty of Business of the University of Palermo (UP).
In the construction sector, one of the most beaten since November 2023, Cement consumption fell 0.6% monthlyaccording to ECONVIEWS based on data from the Association of Cement Manufacturers Portland (AFCP). The same consultant also said that the patents of cars fell 3.1% and that of 1% motorcycles.
For its part, Loans in pesos to the private sector rose 2.4% desestationalized against Julywhile consumer loans increased 2.7%, although commercial loans fell 3%. In turn, social security contributions dropped 1.1% in the monthly comparison.
With this cooling of the economy, private growth forecasts have already fallen and foresee that the internal gross product (GDP) grow between 3.6% and 4%. The survey of market expectations published by the Central Bank (BCRA)which so far is the most positive projection, estimates that it would be 4.4%, according to its latest report. Even so, the estimates are located below the growth in the 2026 budget project for this year, which positioned itself in the 5.4% average.
Source: Ambito
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