The City sees a bands already exhausted and evaluates three scenarios for the dollar after the elections

With a country risk close to 1,300 basic points, Debt maturity From here to January for US $ 8.100 million and an important one currency loss at the hands of the treasure for the intervention Pre -election, the government has almost no room for maneuver to stretch the useful life of the exchange regime. This Thursday, one of the most read consultants on the market gave its verdict: You have to go buy dollars.

But the question is: how will you do it with the current scheme if the BCRA He only buys in the lower band and Luis Caputo already said that to these values ​​the treasure will not do it? The conclusion for analysts of 1816 It is clear: You have to change the scheme.

That is why already He raised three scenarios For the post -election period: Free flotation without bands, devaluation but with fixed exchange rate or the return of the stocks.

Scenario 1: The dollar is released and the bands no longer run

In this first scenario, for 1816, The flotation scheme should be maintained, but without bands. For these experts, it is even “The most likely scenario, clearly the most conventional and the one that surely prefers the IMF.”

If the band system no longer runs, the BCRA will stop selling currencies to defend a level, and Purchases of dollars could be discretionary or under a pre -established program.

According to this report, They could take as an example the recently announced plan for Chile, with purchases for up to US $25 million per day. “An eventual systematic program of accumulation of reservations could well establish different rhythms of purchases for different moments of the year to take into account the seasonality of export settlement,” they added.

Scenario 2: devaluation but fixed exchange rate

In the second scenario they propose a “discreet jump of the spot and fixed exchange rate”. For them, this scheme is an alternative that allows a movement that leads to the dollar to levels compatible with a high current account surpluswhich would also generate “incentives for the capital account to be overwhelmed again.”

By 1816, just after changing it, The interest rate in pesos should lower considerably in real termsbut they warn that if the new peso/dollar parity is credible, it would boost the Carry Trade, as happened for 2024.

To analyze what the appropriate level would be, they highlighted that it serves as a reference that the official dollar of $ 800 at the beginning of the Government of Javier Milei. “A very depreciated TCR in historical terms is a level of almost $ 2,300 at current prices,” they described and recalled that It must also be borne in mind that BCRA purchases in the first six months of this administration were partly explained by the schedule in the payment of imports.

Dollar reservations devaluation

Devaluation, a blow to the pocket of the Argentines.

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Scenario 3: Cepo’s return

The last option and the most unlikely, for them is reinstate the stocks, howeverThey argue that “it is impossible to discard at all.” And mention in this regard, the government signal with the interpretive criteria No. 98 of the CNV which It was read as very negative for the market, since it generated uncertainty about the rules of operation in the local capital market.

Dollar stocks

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Finally they conclude that the alternative of facing a dollarization “do not see it”: “Beyond the lack of reservations to buy the monetary base, that plan would force to convert all bonds into pesos (where banks invest more than half of their deposits in local currency) In bonds in dollars, when they began to put in re -structuring chance prices (The only way to do it is first liquefying and restructuring, a path not so simple to travel whether the population’s support is not so forceful). “