In the first week when the dollar reached the roof of the band, the Central Bank had to part with US $ 1,100 million to sustain the price. The great unknown is what is coming now: is it necessary to sell or buy? This is analyzed by the City.
The political and financial uncertainty does not stop And neither does the pressure on the official dollar. In the middle of the very strong demand, the Central Bank (BCRA) He got rid of US $ 1,100 million In the last three days with the intention of defending the ceiling of the Flotation Bands regime, reached for the first time this Wednesday. Parallel contributions also advanced firmly, and exceeded $ 1,500, What revives the market question: is it time to buy or sell?
For now, the monetary authority sold U $ S53 million in the Changing Free Market (MLC) on Wednesday, US $ 379 million on Thursday and other US $ 678 million this Friday to hold the ceiling of the exchange band. The acceleration of the intervention reflects the pessimism of the market, although the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, announced a possible new indebtedness with the US Treasury to cover the maturities of January and assured that the monetary authority “It will sell to the last dollar in the band’s roof.”
But in the attempt to “reassure” To the market, it only generated greater pressure. The liquidation of dollars this Friday was the highest since October 2019when he still ruled Mauricio Macri. The wholesale dollar closed to $ 1,475, fifty cents above the previous closure, with a volume operated in the cash segment of U $ S842.68 million, the third highest than 2025. Market operators assured that there was a strong demand for financial entities to BCRAthat could respond to that deposits are being withdrawn or preparing for that.
As for parallel dollars, the CCL rose to $ 1,567.06 After new exchange restrictions for financial companies and In the week it increased 5.8%. He MEP operated a $ 1,551.03, with a weekly advance of 5.6%. The gaps closed at 5.7% and 5.2%, respectively, playing April maximums prior to the flexibility of the stocks. The Blue, meanwhile, sold to $ 1,520 this Friday at the City Porteña caves, with a 6.7%weekly adjustment.
Dollar above $ 1,500: Is it time to sell or buy?
“There is an old axiom of veteran operators who say: buy when it is cheap, sell when it is expensive”says the operator Gustavo Quintana. Although today’s question is: Is the dollar cheap or expensive?
However, the expectation is pessimistic: the gaps began to increase, which suggests that The market already discounts an exchange rate above the upper end of the band. In that line, Andrés Reschini, From F2 Financial Solutions, you have hurried to name this scenario: “We are facing a run, where the demand accelerated and the supply contracted”he says.
For its part, the economist Gustavo Ber He added that in his opinion “it will continue to privilege dollarization waiting for a clearer political scenario that can contribute to improving the expectations of economic agents.”
For Quintana It is not possible to affirm if it is time to buy or sell, since it depends on each individual, “in a scenario of strong uncertainty that enhances the tendency to dollarize savings.” The operator emphasizes “if you feel safe with dollars, buy dollars. That is what counts, the rest is pure speculation that has no support.” “In Argentina the dollar is the reserve asset that collective memory treasures, therefore, the technical reasons are not worth, only the emotional ones to make a decision to buy or sell,” he concludes.
Also, the economist Eric Paniagua He states that “it is not a moment of prudence to unfold until there is a sustainability of the exchange scheme.”
“Beyond the current conditions, it seems to me that the government is acting correctly, at least defending parity in the place where they previously said they were going to defendso at that point it seems to me that they are complying with clear rules of play, but beyond that the tension situation continues to sharpen, “analyzes the partner of Dekadrak Venture Capital Consulting.
BCRA CENTRAL BANK
BCRA CENTRAL BANK DOLLAR RESERVES
“The band scheme seems to creak”add reschini and Ber highlights that “While the search for coverage continues, among the operators the expectation of a regime change will grow”. Following the question is: How long will the scheme be maintained as we know it?
“Today I find it hard to think about a runaway dollar if we assume that the bands are eliminated. Then we will have to see how the government is stopped with the next votes in Congress and in the mid -term elections of October,” concludes Reschini.
Source: Ambito
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