Well for the field: the purchasing power of the soybean ton reached maximum one year

This context has generated a intense bid between buyerswhich maintains prices at high levels and adjusts the theoretical margins, but at the same time offers positive signals for production and for the entry of currencies at a key moment for the Argentine economy.

China breaks seasonality and pushes record shipments

One of the determining factors of this rebound is the Redirection of Purchases from China to South America. The BCR report emphasizes that the flood of purchases “breaks with the typical seasonality of the demand for bean we saw during the last four years.”

As a result, September could close with 1.8 million tons exporteda historical monthly record. In the accumulated of the campaign, the shipments would reach 7.1 million tonsthe largest volume in nine years and more than double what was registered on average since 2020/21.

Even so, between export and industry They must cause 11.5 million additional tons To meet the campaign projections. This figure is the highest in almost a decade and represents a logistical and commercial challenge for the coming months.

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Between export and industry they must cause 11.5 million additional tons to meet campaign projections.

Mariano Fuchila

Industrialization at a good pace, but with less import

The report indicates that the progress of Industrial exports It is only two points below the historical average for this height of the year, which is equivalent to some 20 million tons of soybeans already transformed into oil and flour and sent abroad.

However, the Import of soy pore fell 16% year -on -yearwhich reinforces the need to make the most of local production to avoid bottlenecks in the industry.

What is the panorama for wheat

Argentine wheat shows a more orderly panorama. Thanks to the high competitiveness of Argentine Fobat levels similar to the main European and Black Sea origins, the sector achieved Start the export program.

With the shipments planned until September, the accumulated campaign would reach 10.4 million tons. Although there are about 1 million tons for embarked between October and November, the export sector has already acquired more than 12.5 million tons, ensuring compliance with commitments.

In addition, the expected offer for the 2025/26 campaign has been adjusted downwards, which takes over bearish pressure on future prices. In the local market, the futures contract adjusts near USD 188 per tonwhile the negotiated FOB tends to recover USD 220/T levels.

Corn: shows more lag

The corn panorama is less encouraging. The BCR warned that the Purchase rhythm is the lowest in ten years. Until September they would have exported 21 million tons11% less than in 2024 at this point.

DJVE accumulate 22 million tons, while local purchases total 24.5 million. To achieve the projection of 33.5 million exported tonsthey must still originate Additional 8.9 millionan unprecedented volume for this time of the year and 2.3 million greater than that of 2024.

The challenge will be to repeat the Excellent performance of the last quarter of the last cycle, in a context in which the planted area reaches 9.7 million hectares and the production could exceed 60 mt.

In terms of prices, contracts towards April 2026 are located near US $200 per tonwhile the theoretical fas is around US $170 and the local futures market operates between US $177 YU $ S178. In Chicago, the values ​​remain close to US $ 197, with some volatility after the last USDA report.