The market expects the eventual SWAP with the United States, according to scope, contribution relief, but warns that the key will be the October election and the evolution of the country risk, which exceeds 1,400 basic points.
After the Strong sale of currencies to contain the dollar which reached more than US $1 billion in just three days, the government faces challenging maturity Between September and January Where it has in the middle, the October legislative election that concentrates the most attention of investors after electoral defeat in the province of Buenos Aires.
In this period, the government will face debt maturities for U $ 8.1 billion, according to Facimex, of which “US $ 3,800 million correspond to global and bonares payments in JanuaryUS $ 3,100 million to multilateral organizations YU $ S1.2 billion to the Bopreal. ”This implies that the Ministry of Economy lacks around US $7,000 million In just four months to fulfill the commitments. It is for this reason, that it is estimated that the amount of the eventual coin swap with the US could be US $ 10,000 million.
For Martín PoloEconomist and Chief of Strategy of Cohen Financial Allies, “the best scenario is that they get the country risk and go out to look for anchoring in the market, but if they do not achieve it, the worst scenario is to look for alternative sources, such as IMF loans, repo loans or some bridge until July, considering that it is not a very large amount.” The specialist clarified that he does not expect “another debt restructuring” and considers that the less likely scenario is “a default for so few maturities.”
Along the same lines, Leonardo Anzalone, director of CEPEC, warned that “today bond prices reflect concern about strong debt maturities,” and gave as an example the 2041 bonar, which “quotes under USD 48”, which reflects that “the perception of risk increased significantly.” For the economist, “The best scenario is that the ruling party wins the elections clearly, that lowers the country risk and allows access to external credit to roll the commitments. But the worst scenario, without access to external credit and with a market that does not validate more debt in pesos, is the default. ”
Currently, the country risk is above 1,400 basic pointsmore than double the level that would be needed to re -finance abroad to reasonable rates. In this sense, Tobias Pejkovich Balbiani, a facimex economist, said: “The economic program needs Argentina to recover access to the market to stop paying maturities with reservations. For that, Argentina needs a country risk in 550pbs zone, something that we have long since expected to happen towards the end of the year and now look further. The dynamic will not be linear and will depend crucially on the October election, which is why the next 6 weeks will be key to the program of the next 2 years. ”
Trump and Milei
For his part, Amílcar Collante said that “with the current level of country risk and the dollars that the treasure has, necessarily the Government has to announce a reservation purchase program. This implies recalibrating the scheme of exchange bands since the price is close to the ceiling. “The economist explained that under the current scheme” the BCRA can only sell in the upper limit and buy in the lower one “and that if he decided to buy dollars in the market” he would be injecting pesos, which presses the dollar on the rise, which is at the limit of the upper band. “
The consultant 1816 He warned that, in the face of 2027, “both (BCRA and Treasury) have capital maturities and interests for US $ 34,200 Millions. “According to its calculation,” to reach the end of the mandate with void net reserves, the Government would have to buy US $ 27.3 billion in total, about US $1 billion a month as of December 2027. “
Source: Ambito
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