The market is reacting less to macroeconomic foundations and more to political noise. The adverse result for the ruling party in Buenos Aires and the risk of Congress reversing the presidential vetoes They deteriorated investor confidence.
The contributions realized the nervousness: The MEP jumped to $ 1,537 and the CCL at $ 1,559, drilling the ceiling of the exchange band. The rates also accused the stress receipt, with the fixed one moving between 78% and 60.5% TNA, while the CER curve remains around a real yield of 26% for all 2026. The global bonds receded until it averaged US $ S52 – levels similar to those of a year – and the country risk climbed to 1,400 points, which raised the probability of default implicitly implicit five years. ANDThis scenario led investors to disarm positions in sovereign debt, anticipating greater difficulties for fulfilling payments in a context of strong loss of reservations by the Central Bank.
“The doubts about the will and cost of sustaining the regime led to a growth in coverage demand, and neither stocks nor flows seem sufficient seems to satisfy the market. The Price Action He showed it. In September, financial dollars rose up to 15% and marked new levels over the band in +4% ($ 1.537 MEP, $ 1,559 CCL). The rates reflected the stress: the fixed between 78% and 60.5% tna; The CER does not fall from 26% real for all 2026, “they said from GMA capital.
Political discomfort for certain government stamps in Congress and not only defeat in the province of Buenos Aires, joined The doubts about the exchange scheme after the elimination of the Lefis. While the peso market seems more stable, the weights once again fail to function as exchange coverage and that is why the demand for dollars continues to grow.
“The lack of reservations was always the Achilles heel of the Milei program. The Government had as its central objective the decline of inflation and therefore left the accumulation of reserves in the background, without taking into account its importance, since the bulk of the debt is in foreign currency. From the beginning, it disregarded the messages of the IMF and the Wall Street investors. Today the problem has climbed in a disproportionate way and the country of the program, growth and debt payments. Let the dollar float, continue losing reservations or put the stocks again “said Miguel Kiguel, in the last report of Econviews.
What is known about the eventual swap with the US
The President Javier Milei He planned to fly on Sunday night to the United States prior to his speech before the UN already the expected meeting scheduled for Tuesday with his American couple, Donald Trump, Although he rescheduled the trip and leave this Monday. The new schedule is not yet defined. From this decision, the Argentine government had to reage the meeting with the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva.
In addition to meetings with Trump and Georgieva, Milei’s central objective on this trip is to expose before the United Nations Organization (UN) next Wednesday. On Tuesday, shortly after his arrival he will attend the speech of the president of the United States scheduled for noon and later they are scheduled to meet at a bilateral meeting that, for the moment, was only confirmed by the Casa Rosada.
The meeting with the American president generates double expectation in the government since the president confirmed in the last hours that a support of the administration of Donald Trump is sought at a time when the Central Bank must intervene strongly in the change market to contain the value of the dollar. It is speculated that the agreement could be at least US $ 10,000 million.
The first president acknowledged that his government is in Treatments with the US Treasury for Obtain a line that allows you to deal with the next debt maturities that the country must face in 2026. “We are working very strongly, we are very advanced,” he said.
The search for this financial lifeguards occurs after a week of high exchange high voltage in which the Central Bank He had to disburse US $ 1,100 million To try to hold the price of the flotation band.
In this context, Milei told the newspaper La Voz del Interior: “We were clear that this year was going to be very complicated and we had already begun to develop strategies for cover the payments that Argentina has next yearwhich are U $ 4,000 million in January YU $ S4.5 billion in July. With which we have been working, these negotiations demand time, but well until we are confirmed we do not make ads. But we are working very strongly, we are very advanced and it is also a matter of time, “he explained.
Source: Ambito
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