How will impact the decline in temporary withholdings in the dollar and reserves, according to economists

The economist Fernando Marull, director of FYMA, was the first to refer to the measure and highlighted the direct benefit for the producer: “If the transitional ‘retentions’ to 0%are fulfilled; the soy would be like this: better price in 25 years for the producer.”

It is worth remembering that during the weekend, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) analyzed Friday that the purchasing power of a ton of soybeans in the Local market reached maximum in more than a year and is 27% higher since export rights were permanently reduced. Therefore, this measure generates a forceful attraction for agriculture.

For its part, Gabriel Caamaño, Outlier economisthe warned about the cost in terms of credibility: “Surely those who ignored the guru and government and quickly sold their grains in June and July will be recontent. That said, marked in a timely man Assiduity.

In turn, Martín Rapetti, director of Balance, analyzed the effects of the temporary decline of three -dimensional withholdings:

• Greater offer of dollars now, lower after the elections; ergo, less exchange rate today (or less loss of BCRA reserves) and greater post -elections exchange rate.

• Lower collection in 2025; Ergo greater primary fiscal deficit or greater adjustment of spending in the remainder of the year.

• Higher price in pesos of products without retentions; Ergo probable transient acceleration of inflation over the next months.

Mariela Brandolin, a grain and investment specialist held the scope which remains to be liquidated 23.4 mill.tt of soy soy, and 26.4 of corn. In dollars they are US $ 15,000 million. “The elimination of retentions will generate an immediate impact on the grain market. With this change, soybeans could record a rise close to US $ 19 per ton, while corn and wheat would have an estimated increase of about US $20 each. However, The full effect of these improvements could be attenuated in the event that producers decide to sell large volumes immediately, since a significant increase in the offer would press prices. ”

“Anyway, it is a clearly favorable scenario, which will promote producers to specify sales. In turn, this will force exporters to register affidavit statements to the outside (DJVE) and to liquidate currencies, since the measure establishes that they must enter at least 90% of the currencies within a maximum period of three business days from the presentation of the DJVE. In conclusion, this scheme could contribute to mode Revert – the recent volatility of the dollar, by guaranteeing a more agile flow of foreign exchange towards the market, “he added.

For its part, Antonella Semadeni Economist Fada He stated that “without a doubt it is a positive measure because margins significantly improves, with an impact of around US $ 75 per ton of soybeans and almost US $20 per ton in corn.” Within that framework, he admitted that despite the improvement, he stays with a “bitter taste” for the context in which the decision is made. “If aordate had been implemented and for correct reasons such as relieving tax pressure to the sector, We would not be facing a conjunctural patch but before a policy capable of generating more genuine and sustainable dollars for the economy in the long term. “

The comings and turns with retentions to agriculture

The decision comes after the official dollar touched the ceiling of the exchange band and the BCRA should sell more than USD 1.1 billion in three days to contain the pressure. For analysts, the government seeks to “buy time” to the legislative elections, encouraging agriculture to liquidate currencies in the short term to relieve the exchange market.

It is not the first time that the economic team resorts to the adjustments in the withholdings to try to order the exchange front. Earlier this year, the government ordered a 20% reduction in retentions to the agricultural sector until the end of June and the Total elimination of taxes for regional economies. The measure aimed to encourage currency liquidation at a time of strong tension in the market, when the Executive needed to strengthen the offer of dollars to sustain reservations and avoid a major imbalance.

Concluded that period and after a greater foreign exchange income, the fiscal relief was partly reversed: the Executive announced the Restoration of aliquots for key products such as soybeans and corn from July. This measure is a new change to one of the sectors that generate the most currencies in Argentina.