In that context, the dollar wholesalerwhich is the market reference and by which the agro -exporters liquidate, already retreated already $ 1,408 for salewith maximum of $ 1,452.50 in mid -morning. In total, about US $ 493.9 million were operated, without official activity being detected throughout the wheel.
In this regard, the economist Federico Glustein pointed to Scope That the options within the planned aid may include, among others, SWAP lines, Degs, direct currency purchases, as well as government debt purchases called in dollars of the dollars of the dollars of the dollars Treasury exchange stabilization background.
In that sense, the expert recalled that, in general, These types of programs impose conditions such as fiscal adjustment and rise in interest ratesso in the Argentine case it could mean continuing with the fiscal adjustment, but “more flexible exchange bands and some guarantees, such as export rights, royalties or state assets.”
Glustein said that The idea in this case is not to need the amount in its entirety, as happened in Mexico after the Tequila effectalthough later they asked for reinsurance the liquid royalties of Pemex And they will pay it quickly. “I understand that it will not be the entire disbursement at once, but by sections,” said the economist, who understands that this “will require the acceptance of the ‘seniority’, that is, of the priority over other creditors.”
As for the dollarhe argued that this “It will tend to go down” for calm in expectationsbut then he will “support the maturities in the short term to dissipate existing doubts, lower the country risk and give certainty.”
In the morning, market sources indicated that The monetary authority was ready to defend the roof of the band, which is currently located at $ 1,476.8, with an offer of US $200 million. However, they advanced that “After the retentions of temporary low ads, a lot of private offer began to appear ahead of the band’s value”.
For its part, the retail dollar closed to $ 1,383.34 for purchase and $ 1,438.30 For sale In the average of the financial institutions published by the Central Bank (BCRA). Meanwhile, in the BNAthe ticket made it to $ 1,380 For purchase and $ 1,430 For sale. Thus, the Card or tourist dollarequivalent to the retail official dollar plus a surcharge of 30% deductible from the income tax, it is located $ 1,859.
Among the parallels, the dollar Blue receded $ 45 to $ 1,475 for saleaccording to a survey of Scope in the City caves. For its part, the MEP dollar sink 7.9% to $ 1,429.03 and the gap against the wholesaler is 1.4 %%. Meanwhile, the dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) drops 8.2% to $ 1,439.12with an Spread of 2.2% compared to the official price.
Dollar contracts closed significant casualties up to 7.2%. The “price” market that the wholesale exchange rate at the end of September will be $ 1,397.5, and that In December it will reach up to $ 1,526which exceeds the roof of the band. In total, contracts for US $ 686 million were operated.
The Chief Economist of ADCAP, Federico Filippinisaid that the support expressed by the American Treasury, backed by the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMP) Kristalina Gueorguievait was “forceful” and that “the ideological and geopolitical alignment of Argentina with Washington was key.”
“The markets have already reacted, erasing the falls of the last days and carrying prices at the levels after the elections of the province of Buenos Aires”the specialist added, who believes that the support, added to the announcement of the transient decline of the withholdings to the field, “Dissipa the risks of loss of reserves and grants more time to the exchange band regime”.
Remove Agro withholdings
In the morning, it was known that there will be removal of retentions until the end of October. He decree states that those who export The products achieved must liquidate at least 90% of the currencies obtained within three business days after the DJVEeither by charges, advances of liquidation or external financing.
“This scheme could help modehe said to Scope, Mariela BrandolinFinancial grain and investment market consultant.
For this expert, The elimination of retentions will generate an immediate impact on the grain market. With this change, soybeans could record a rise close to US $ 15 per ton, while corn and wheat would have an estimated increase of about US each.
“However, The full effect of these improvements could be attenuated In the event that producers decide to sell large volumes immediately, since A significant increase in the offer would press prices“He said and expanded:” Anyway, It is a clearly favorable scenario, which will drive producers to specify sales“
Brandolin says they still have to liquidate: 23.4 million soy tons, and 26.4 tons of corn, approximately US $ 15,000 million.
In turn, from Sailing Investments They explained that, for the market, the decrease in debt withholdings in sovereign pesos and bonds in dollars, “the signal is positive.” “A higher currency income improves the perception of payment capacity and reduces the probability of immediate exchange tensions, which can lead to Spreads compression in the sovereign titles,” they added.
Source: Ambito
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