The international agency cut seven tenths its June estimate and warned that recent political and financial instability could affect projections.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Keep trusting that the Argentine economy will come out of low growth in 2025but cut its projection to 4.5%seven tenths below the estimate published in June. This is the greater downward correction between G20 countriesaccording to the interim perspective report published on Tuesday.
Álvaro Pereira, chief economist of the OECD, explained that the adjustment responds to a deceleration of private consumption and exports, as well as a credit drop. In addition, he indicated that a setback in industry and construction, key sectors for economic activity has been observed.
By 2026, the agency maintains its growth forecast in 4.3%the same one that had anticipated three months ago. However, Pereira warned that these projections do not contemplate the signs of political and financial instability registered in recent weeks in the country, that if aggravated they could have a macroeconomic impact.
GDP
It should be remembered that in 2024 the Argentine GDP fell 1.3%being the only economy of the G20 that was in recession during that year.
The OECD also projects a strong moderation of inflation: from the 219.9% registered in 2024the rate would go down to an average of the 39.8% in 2025 and al 16.5% in 2026which would mean the lowest level of recent years.
How to differ from government projections
According to the 2026 budget presented recently by the ruling party, the GDP would grow 5.4% and 5% in 2026, well above the OECD projections. Meanwhile, in terms of inflation, the expected figure is 24.5%somewhat higher than 20.2% estimated by the participants of the last survey of market expectations (REM) prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA), but also above the OECD which expects to close the year with inflation close to 40%.
Source: Ambito
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