USA: What does the economic team market expect now to further lower the country risk?

The government of Javier Milei is again in the opportunity to give markets the background signal They need to re -trust the economic program and with it, strongly reduce the country risk, a fundamental requirement for the activity to work again. It’s about returning to buy dollars genuinely.

This is indicated by several reports and opinions of economists known after the double announcement of the temporary elimination of export withholdings until add US $ 7,000 million And the confirmation of the United States Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, that Donald Trump’s government will go to the aid of his main ally in Latin America with an assistance package.

He Current climate is similar to the one in April of this year when the agreement was signed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which supported the scheme of exchange bands to replace the exhausted scheme of “Crawling Peg”.

“The US support surely takes you out of 4 -digit country riskbecause it manages doubts about dollars for debt payments. But to achieve a normal country risk, access to markets, A good policy design is needed macro and political intelligence for governance and pending reforms, ”he explained to Scope Javier Okseniuk, chief economist Labour, Capital & Growth (LCG).

The consultant issued a report on Tuesday where in one of its points it indicates: “It must be remembered that, with the agreement with the IMF, the country risk also collapsed because the dollars that were scarce had appeared. But then he stagnated at the 700 points, without signs of continuing to go down, because there were doubts about the ability to generate dollars. ”

LCG recalls that “it was a context where The government insisted that we had to go to the band of the band, since ‘there were no pesos’ “. “Whatever the way in which it will have the help of the United States, it would be a bad sign that we incur in the same errors as before. The ideal would be to maintain a competitive dollarmaybe getting out of the bands, and avoiding large fluctuations with interventions, ”warns the consultant.

In the same waythe economist and consultant Rodrigo Álvarez It states that after getting an offer of dollars from the field to eliminate withholdings, the treasure has to buy in order to guarantee the payment of the maturities.

“The treasure has to buy what generates the superior offer of dollars. It does not have to take tourism abroad, beyond that we know that the US is going to support with an assistance package ”he warned.

Economic history from The 80 ‘to date shows that there were no stabilization plans in Latin America that have not gone through a rise in exports. In April, after obtaining the agreement, the minister de Economics, Luis Caputo, announced to the market, at a meeting organized by JP Morgan, which was not going to buy reservations by adducing: “We are comfortable with what we have.” That implied that despite decisive sustaining the order of fiscal accounts, with low inflation, The risk will not pierce the 700 points.

“I would like to see that the government recover some of the reserves that it lost fundamentally through the treasure. I don’t see the BCRA buying on the band’s floor. If the treasure manages to rebuild some of the reserves he lost, I think the Central Bank is going to be kept out, ”said Álvarez. The consultant states that the accumulation of dollars would have to be at the head of the treasure instead of the BCRA.

Was the political risk ended?

The fact that the United States government in the equation of Argentina puts some cold cloths, it generates a climate change in very important marketsHey limits the effect of opposition political action. That is, political risk can be moderated now, but that does not imply that everything is resolved from the economic, which is what markets expect.

Martín Polo, economist from Cohen Financial Allies, He states: “In one day, the bonds and actions rose almost 20%. Silver appeared (?) And The “political risk” collapsed, or at least said. Economic risk persists. Even so, the bonds are on the April floor. ”

In relation to this, the director of Synopsis Consultores, Lucas Romero The sensation of the operators still remembered the presentation letters that Javier Milei made as an economist did.

“Now much more is understood as ‘growth expert with or without money’. Above all ‘without money’. Two rescues in less than a year (IMF and US Treasury), effectively talk about an expert in driving without money, ”Romero criticized.

In the same way the analyst Christian Buteler caught attention to the problems of the economic approach to generate trust, before the politicA: “The bond market changed to the expectations generated after the statements of the Secretary of the Treasury. The exchange market for the flow that will contribute the field due to the decline of the withholdings. In neither I see that the Kuka risk has varied. ”