The Investment Bank considered that an eventual North American Treasury loan for up to US $ 10,000 million would relieve currency needs and stabilize reserves, improving the perception of risk in the short term.
The recent US support announcement to Argentina caused an immediate turn in the risk perception about the local economy, according to a report from Morgan Stanley. The possibility that the American treasure grant a loan – which the bank estimates could reach US $ s10,000 million– significantly reduced the fears of lack of liquidity and Breach of foreign currency payments by 2026, in a context of high volatility and growing financing needs.
For the entity, This support constitutes “a clear sign of international confidence towards the country.” In its analysis, it argues that a line of credit linked to future US investments is more feasible than other alternatives such as the purchase of Argentine pesos or the opening of swap lines. “A credible announcement of this type should improve liquidity for 2026, the first key engine for markets,” he said.
Immediate reaction in markets
The prices of sovereign bonds and the Insurance against default (CDs) They showed an improvement after the news was known. However, Morgan Stanley warns that there is still a margin of adjustment in the expiration sections for one and two years if the US support is concretized. While the CDs at six months and one year already reflects less risk premium, the curve at two and three years became more steep, reflecting the uncertainty around the economic policy that arises after the 2027 presidential elections.
According to the report, the Argentine government faces Foreign currency maturities for about US $12,000 million in 2026while international treasure reserves barely reach US $640 million In the BCRA. Within that framework, an external loan for US $ 10 billion “would significantly help payments of 2026 and to stabilize reserves on a scenario without access to markets”, although it would not solve the financing needs of the following years.
Morgan Stanley also highlights that, as of 2026, the net flow of funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) It will be negative: disbursements will fall from US $ 14,000 million in 2025 to only US $ 1,900 million in 2026, while that year there will be net payments to the agency for US $ 2,600 million. In contrast, multilateral organisms such as World Bank and the IDB They would maintain a positive flow, with nearby gross disbursements au $ S5,000 million annually from 2026 onwards.
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Composition of debt and political risks
The report highlights that most of the Argentine debt in hard currency is low foreign lawarising from the restructuring of 2020, with about 68% in the hands of international investors. Despite the recent increase in local tenure, Exposure to external creditors remains high.
The risk curve was especially steep between the maturities of 2026 and 2027, since government guarantees are concentrated in the first year, while fiscal continuity and reforms after the 2027 elections remains uncertain. For Morgan Stanley, the probability of default in 2026 was reduced “significantly”, but the risk for the following years remains elevated.
On the modalities of an eventual American support, the bank considers a more viable long -term loan that the direct purchase of Argentine assets. Among the aforementioned alternatives are the creation of an investment vehicle linked to an eventual Latin American Sovereign Fund or the issuance of a new bonus designed. On the other hand, the purchase or guarantee of the existing bonds is presented as more complex, since their payments are distributed in several amortizations and not in a single expiration concentrated in 2026.
Source: Ambito
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