The US Treasury Secretary said they negotiate a swap with Argentina of US $20,000 million, as part of the salvage that the American giant would give the country.
After the president’s meeting Javier Milei and its Minister of Economy, Luis Caputowith the American president Donald Trump, the secretary of the TreasureScott Besent, used social networks to leave clues about the details of salvage to Argentina. This time it was known that The amount of the SWAP would reach the US $20,000 million, if negotiations are completed. This allows to project at what level international reserves could remain.
Consulted by Scopethe economist Federico Machado He explained in this regard that, if the swap that Argentina has already in force with China is taken as a basis, The US $20,000 million would be used to increase gross reserveswhich are currently at US $ 39,176 million, So with a photo of today they would be at US $ 59,176 million. The expert warned that, however, to be used, It would be necessary to activate it by sections.
In the case of activating the swap, Machado remarked, Remember that an interest rate is paid during the period in which the Central Bank has activated itand at that time they become Liquid. “That is, one still owes the US $ 20,000 million, but of that amount you can only use the section that is active. Then, in principle, in principle, If all the inactive swap comes only to increase gross reserves“The expert clarified.
The economist also explained that In none of the cases affects net reserves. What happens is that net reserves are the balance of international reserves, discounting liabilities (debts) contracted by the same entity in foreign currency, such as loans or Swap agreements. In this case, $20,000 million enter, but the liability is increased by US $20,000 million, which does not modify.
Swap with China: will they ask to cancel it to accept the exchange with the US?
An unknown that was not yet clear is what will happen to SWAP that Argentina maintains with China: should both exchanges be added or one replaces the other? To start paving the way, the economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina He said to Scope: “The exchange with China is 130 billion yuan Renminbi (CNY). Today is approximately US $ 18.2 billion. This new line is supposed to also have the requirement to disarm the other swap. “
Gravina also put on the table another key point that emerges from the exchange of currencies: It does not weigh on the goal of accumulation of reserves that currently demands the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the Luis Caputo team. “The goal of net reserves, in principle, excludes everything as it now does with the swap with China. So surely in case it would also exclude the swap with the American treasure. Reservations goals does not modify at all“The economist warned.
But this situation of greater accumulation of gross reserves does collaborate in the accumulation of net reserves: “first than This support from the United States moves you away from the roof of the band in which you were losing reservations. If the exchange rate is low and the treasure buys It is a sign of improving the ability to pay the Argentine debtespecially knowing that you will have an exceptional settlement due to the transient elimination of those of retentions to agricultural products. “In this way there is a new strategy regarding the accumulation of reserves, which While the swap does not have a direct impact, “indirectly help”he trusted gravin.
Net reservations: What level are and what is the goal with the IMF
By excluding lace, the swap with the Chinese Popular Bank (PBOC), the obligations with international organizations and Sedesa, from Facimexas entrusted to ScopeThey estimate that Net reserves are located around US $ 5,200 million. In turn, they calculated that Net reserves under the IMF methodology are about US $ 7,000 million below the goal of the 2025 quarter quarter.
“Now I see this less relevant goal after the enormous international support that Argentina received this week from the United States and other multilateral organizations. This does not mean that it would be very positive for Argentina to consolidate the accumulation of reservations “he said to the scope, Tobias Pejkovich Balbianieconomist of that same consultant, consulted about the importance of increasing the position of the treasure in the BCRA.
It should be noted that US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, indicated that in addition to the swap they are also ready to buy Argentine bonds in dollars and grant a stand-by loan through the exchange stabilization fund. As a reference, from Facimex they did the following theoretical exercise: A US $ 20,000 million swap would cover the expiration of debt Hard Dollar (global, bonares and bopreal) and rest until April 2027 inclusive.
In this way, he said, “The economic team practically ensures performing during the mandate of Javier Milei, shielding the program and reducing the need and urgency of recovering the market access.”
Source: Ambito
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