Future dollar contracts came up to 4% after several days with strong falls. What’s behind this coverage search.
The contract curve of future dollar The decline of the official dollar, But this Thursday That dynamic broke. Half a wheel, Highs of more than 4% were recorded and the implicit rates reached 65%. With the passing of the hours he was moderating, however he caught the attention The strong increase in volumeswhich could determine that there is A search for coverage especially in the deadlines that close after the legislative elections of October.
The economist Gabriel Caamaño of Outlier He informed that almost US $ 2,800 million were registered in the volume operated on Thursday in the future dollar market, “with increases in all contracts and implicit that, with the exception of September, for the maturities of here at the end of the year they settled above 50% per year”, for this expert there was a “Strong demand for coverage as a complement to the strong liquidation in the MLC”.
It should be noted that the volume had already remained significant in the previous day: a report by this consultant argued that on Wednesday there were 2,365,265 contracts. “Again something curious was seen in the distribution of open interest openings: Strong falls in September and December, and openings in October, November and May that almost nete the casualties“They reported.
Another important factor to keep in mind is that, in the previous day, ARK He communicated at the last minute that the “Zero Retentions” window was closed because The cap of US $ 7,000 million in just three Conference. Thus, the settlement of the AGRODOLARS, rose strongly against the previous days: On Tuesday 23, US $ 288 million were settled on Wednesday 24, US $ 534 million, according to market sources. This greater offer of dollars fell strongly, which this morning approached up to $ 1,300.
Three key days are coming, they advance from the City
For the Consultant 1816the next three days will be “very peculiar to the exchange market”, because Agro must liquidate around US $ 5,500 million per total, that is, about US $ 1,800 million per day. To this calculation they arrived when considering that the decree of zero withholdings forces to liquidate at least 90% of the US $ 7,000 million, that is, about US $ 6.3 billion, and The sector would have already liquidated about US $ 800 million between Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thus, from this consultant, they assure that this week will be seen if the market acts as free or not. For them, if he does, the great income of agro dollars should not alter the exchange rate. If not, there will be tensions because those weights will look for financial dollars again and press the gap. In the event that the bearish pressure on the spot is significant, since 1816 they believe that the Treasury will take advantage to buy dollars and “face better stop the coming weeks, prior to the national election, in which the liquidation of the agriculture will disappear.”
Source: Ambito
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