The private capital market is going through a moment of brake and caution at the international level. According to him Private Equity Midyear Report 2025 Prepared by Bain & Company, private capital operations and exits suffered a marked deceleration in the second quarter of the year. The central reason: the growing volatility in global trade derived from the new tariff scheme promoted by the president of the United States, Donald Trumpwhich redefines the exchange rules with a 10% floor for countries with surplus against the US and additional penalties on strategic sectors.
The impact is felt on multiple fronts: from the liquidity of the funds to investment planning, through uncertainty in key industries for Latin America, such as food, energy and manufacturing.
The tariff storm and its financial effect
The hardening of global trade, especially between the United States and China, configured what Bain calls a “tariff war.” This conflict not only limits exports, but also impacts directly on investor’s confidence.
In the case of private capital, the immediate consequence is the lack of liquidity. Fund collection rounds are maintained below historical averages, while Limited Partners (LPS) They face greater difficulties in obtaining yields and balance their wallets. This situation generates additional pressure on General Partners (GPS)which are more difficult to meet the profitability objectives and move from management commissions to Carry commissions, even affecting their ability to retain talent.
“While the secondary market offers an opportunity for investors with less liquidity restrictions, it has not yet reached a degree of maturity to solve the broader needs of the sector. Today it represents less than 5% of private capital assets managed worldwide,” he explained Gustavo Fusoni, Bain & Company partner in Argentina.
The resource to the secondary market
To face the shortage of cash, LPS are more frequently resorting to the secondary market, selling participations with the aim of balancing wallets and obtaining liquidity. This dynamic responds to both macroeconomic factors and specific fund flow needs.
However, the tool has limits: the supply of liquidity in the secondary market is insufficient against the magnitude of current needs. This forces investors to rethink strategies and, in many cases, to prioritize value creation projects internally, with focus on cost control and acceleration of sales in companies already acquired.
Opportunities in time of uncertainty
Despite the adverse panorama, volatility also opens windows of opportunity. The recent case of 3G Capitalwhich acquired the skechers footwear firm for more than US $ 9,000 million after a strong fall in its shares, is illustrative. Market turbulence reduces valuations and allow more liquid funds to acquire strategic assets at convenient prices.
In that sense, Bain emphasizes that private capital companies that adapt can not only sustain their profitability, but also better position themselves in future exits, once the rules of global trade are stabilized.
Latin America against reorganization
The region is not exempt from the shake. Export sectors such as processed foods, energy and industrial manufacturing are particularly exposed to US tariff measures. For funds with operations in Latin America, the challenge goes through reconfiguring value chains, diversifying destination markets and strengthening financial resilience strategies.
Beyond the immediate effects, what is at stake is a Structural reorganization of world trade and geopolitics. The business hypothesis with which many companies planned their year have been outdated in just a few months.
Adapt as a strategy
In conclusion, although global private capital still has liquidity and strategic buyers willing to act, the dynamics of operations are more cautious. The slogan seems clear: adapt to uncertainty rather than wait for your end.
If the tariff tension dissipates, the flow of operations could be reactivated rapidly. Meanwhile, those who are committed to investing in this context will have the advantage of capitalizing depressed valuations and positioning themselves in advance against the next recovery cycle.
Source: Ambito
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