Dollar: a strong liquidation wheel is expected and the pressure on the gap after restrictions

Dollar: a strong liquidation wheel is expected and the pressure on the gap after restrictions

September 29, 2025 – 08:51

The reimposition of cross restrictions and strong currency purchases by the Treasury promoted a jump in the BCRA reserves. Today the flow of agriculture liquidations continues.

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The exchange market prepares for the opening of this Monday, September 29 with a marked expectation, after a week defined by the measures of the economic team of Luis Caputo to stop a “rulo” between the official dollar and the financial dollar. The reimposition of cross restrictions, the effect on the price of exchange rates and strong currency purchases by the Treasury, are two of the issues that will follow in the operators agenda.

It is important to remember that the official dollar at Banco Nación closed at $ 1,350 for sale on Friday, while the wholesale dollar, market reference, was $ 1,326. The Blue dollar ended at $ 1,440, expanding the 8.6% gap with the official dollar. The MEP concluded the week at $ 1,433.53, while the one with liquidation (CCL) did so at $ 1,472.51.

DOLLAR BCRA INTERVENTION RESERVES

The City monitors treasure purchases in agro settlement peaks

The City monitors treasure purchases in agro settlement peaks

The impact of “stocks to the rulo” and treasure purchases

The decision to prevent for 90 days from the purchase of financial dollars who access the official market had an immediate effect. Thanks to the settlements of the agriculture and the exchange restrictions on Friday, LThe gross reservations of the Central Bank (BCRA) grew US $ 1,889 million This Friday, which meant the greatest daily increase since August 4, to overcome the U $ 41,000 million. This was a product, fundamentally, of treasure purchases, which reached the US $ 1,345 million, confirmed the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoon a day in which the BCRA reinstated a measure of the stocks to the dollar (cross restriction) to cut with a financial ruling.

Today is the last day of strong liquidations of agriculture and the treasure is expected to buy strong again, which allows you to accumulate enough to pay for the maturities of January.

According to calculations of the consulting firm 1816, between Monday and Tuesday the agro -export sector should liquidate around US $2.7 billionthus completing an estimated total flow in US $6,300 million. “If the treasure maintains the current purchasing rhythm – aquivalent to 77% of the liquidated -, this stage will end with close acquisitions AU $ S s s3.8 billion”, They estimated.

The consultant also highlighted the importance of instrument menu offered by the Ministry of Finance In the last tender, include dollar linked bonds, which allows channeling the Exchange coverage demand.

In conclusion, most analysts expect the exchange gap will remain highas a reaction to the restrictions implemented last Friday.

Source: Ambito

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