Definitions of a Javier Milei Guru: dollar, reservations, investments and the field anger

Di Stéfano, whose origin is linked to the field, reveals that the 0% retentions window for the export of grains that lasted just 3 days and was used by the large cereals that consumed the quota of US $ 7,000 million in only 72 hours.

In a column published in his blog, the analyst, who on Tuesday will participate in a dialogue with Milei himself and with whom he usually shares looks on the march of the economy, referred to the situation of the dollar, the reserves, the shares and the country risk.

The government this week was very active, launched a zero -grain retention program up to US $ 7,000 million, a quota that was completed in a few days. The great acceleration was based on the sayings of Scott Besent who indicated that I did not agree with this measure, at a time when the soybean harvest was built in the United States, increasing the offer worldwide. The times accelerated, and the market registered in the affidavits of sale abroad a sale that ended up closing said quota. Private estimates would indicate that 10 million tons of grains were delivered, and they would have to buy about 10 million additional tons.

The field was very angry with this measurebecause it did not have accommodated that the quota was over. However, export has to buy many tons, and the price of soy is formed in an supply and demand environment, therefore, if producers restrict sales, it would not be discharcha that prices reach higher values.

The soy position November was worth on September 19, on September 22, US $ 360 and on Friday, September 26, US $ 340, not far from the maximums. However, union organizations will request the authorities reopening the quota so that more producers can take advantage of this benefit.

The liquidations of dollars of the affidavit of foreign sales would culminate on Monday, The Treasury and the Central Bank should take advantage of block purchases and increase the stock of reservations. This information will be much clearer next Wednesday.

This action made it possible that the dollar is further from the band, the price of the dollar on the band’s roof is located at $ 1,478.75, and in the market it is worth $ 1,330, however, even this far from the floor of the band that is located at $ 946.22. The Central Bank buys on the band of the band, or can buy in block if there is an operation that can distort the normal market development, we believe that this time I could buy.

The treasure has abundant weights to buy dollars if necessary, the power of fire in pesos will allow you to buy more than $ 10,000 million, counting the money it has in the Central Bank and in private banks.

We have gone from a scenario of loss of reservations, to a scenario where we would be gaining reservations, something that should take peace of the bond and actions market. On the other hand, in the dollar’s futures market, the Central Bank recovered the lost money and went to a winning position, which is absorbing weights in this scenario.

Sovereign bonds are in a scenario of great volatility. For example, we will take the AL35D bonus, which in January achieved a maximum of US $ 73, and on September 18, it quoted at US $ 42, located at the time of writing this note at US $ 57. We believe that, if the agreement with the United States is specified, Argentina will have a swap for US $ 20,000 million, an additional loan, and the American treasure could buy sovereign bonds in the primary and secondary market. This should give more dynamism to the bond market, if Al35D exceeds the level of US $ 61.20 could take impulse to exceed US $ 72 at some point in the coming months.

If this occurs, the country risk is likely to fall considerably to the area of ​​the 650 points. To return to a country risk of 550 points as we had in January 2025, this bonus should be worth $ 76.0. If everything goes well, this is a bonus that can leave a profitability of 33.3% in a short period of time. If the scenario is not entirely favorable, but the United States gives us the swap, there are no reason to think about a significant decline in this title.

In terms of actions, We see four companies that have announced that control groups repurchase actions in the market, and would be Vista, Pampa, Byma and Central Puerto. This could generate a contagion effect on the control groups of other companies. To this we must add that oil is having a positive trend in the market, which helps boost YPF action, which was very punished in recent wheels. YPF today is worth $ 27.63, when the presidency Javier Milei was assumed worth $ 17.0 and in January of the year 2025 he came to quote US $ 47.40, there is more to win than to lose with this company.

Conclusions

. – The entry of dollars from the retention zero program, will increase the reserves of the Central Bank and move the dollar of the upper band away, but it is not enough to go to the band’s floor.

. – Government profits in the future dollar market will allow you to absorb weights of the market again, and discipline the behavior of speculators.

. – The support of the United States is essential for Argentina, clear the doubts about compliance with the payment of the future debt, remember that we have expiration of the debt capital, since the interests are paid with the flow of funds generated by the Treasury.

. – In this context, you should have a lower country risk, the first beneficiaries will be the sovereign bonds in dollars, followed by bond holders in pesos, and finally the shares are the ones that have the most to rise, in a market that is very volatile, and not suitable for cardiacs, although the profits can make you king.