The dollar navigates turbulent waters: coverage grows, the “mash” and the alert signals that emerge from the gap grows

At the beginning of the week, the market awaits other Strong income from agriculture -after the incentive to liquidate with the temporary elimination of retentions –which will result in New acquisitions by the Treasury. In parallel, the Central Bank (BCRA) reinstated the Cross restriction which prevents buying in the officer and then selling in the financial one, a measure that fired the exchange gap above the 10% And the coverage demanded by cereals. In this framework, the fact that the dollar CCL is overcoming the wholesaler’s roof is read by the operators as a sign that the official exchange rate could Accelerate your rhythm of rise in the coming weeks.

It should be noted that Last week the Government announced zero withholdings for agro settlement until October 31 or until the U $ 7,000 million quota is covered (Something that finally happened in three days). As the regulations require that 90% of currencies be liquidated within three business days of their statement, The cereals already liquidated US $ 3,640 million of the US $ 6.3 billion availableso they would still be aware of entering about US $ 2,660, specified from Romano Group.

Of this, the treasure has already acquired about US $ 1,700 million (mainly between Thursday -U $ S300 million- and Friday -u $ 1,350 million-). Indeed, The government bought 77% of the agriculture at the end of last week, thanks to the return of exchange restrictions. “It will be interesting to see the treasure to buy as many dollars in the incoming week, also taking into account that Post-agro wheels are coming where the offer should reduce and the dollar may find it higher than the current“They added from Romano Group.

From SBS groupthe gaze goes in the same tune: the need to swell the BCRA coffers is essential before the proximity of bulky debt maturities. “We believe that The accumulation of net reserves is essential For country risk dynamics, in such a way to return to international credit markets. Therefore, We consider the government, be it via BCRA or Treasury (we see the latter more feasible) buy much of what is liquidated to strengthen their own currencies. “

With respect to what may come in the short term, beyond the political factor that will be determined by the result of the elections, from Romano Group They believe it will be necessary to be attentive to “How the agreement with the US is defined (or not)”which could include a swap for up to U $20,000 millionbond purchases and some loan. “We hope to see a demand for growing coverage with a market that places strong doubts to the continuity of the post-election exchange scheme.”They highlighted as important to monitor these weeks.

For the measure of the BCRA, the coverage for agriculture is more expensive

In the midst of the record of the agriculture product of the end of zero retentions, the BCRA left Friday before the end of the wheel to modify part of the operation to acquire currencies, which generated new pitfalls so that the cereals go out to look for coverage immediately. “It is that by not allowing arbitration and the MEP/CCL is more expensive, this implicitly generates a coverage in the agricultural sector that liquidates its dollars to pesos and could subsequently be covered at a relatively reasonable cost”explained this day from Romano Group.

In fact, they stressed from this consultant, which With a gap around 10%, this generated a greater incentive to enter the tender. “Only the dollar linked segment of this tender, represented 54% of the financing, with a total ´Rollover ‘of 130% compared to maturities for $ 5.6 billion post-chart to the BCRA,” they said in this report.

Meanwhile, the segment of future dollar It is another market in which greater demand for coverage by agriculture. To cite an example, on Friday, according to Outlierthere was a considerable open interest (more than 368,000 contracts), mainly in the contract to October (+323.675), November (+70.178) and May (+36.387), with slight falls in September and February. This led to the open interest to more than 9,200,000 contracts, while the general volume was also important (US $ 2,422,374).

The return of the “pure dollar” marks an alert signal

In these weeks of volatility Until the national elections finally arrive, from a very read by the City The purchase of official dollar by retailers to sell in the informal market. “We assume that the Blue will tend to converge with the MEP and the Government will have to choose between losing many reservations on the road to October 26 or letting the official exchange rate slide,” experts of 1816 said.

This Monday The CCL dollar has a 10% gap against the officer, that is, it is located on the roof of the band that weighs on the wholesaler. “Beyond what happened on Friday and will continue to happen Monday and Tuesday, Argentina’s recent past is very forceful: More stock (or more gap) implies in the long run less (and no more) reserves, because the incentives to run against the BCRA begin“, highlighted the same report, in relation to the extent as it imposes A cross restriction to simultaneously access the Mulc and financial dollars.

On this point they launched a warning: the “rulo” that the government cut on Friday, so far they did relatively few people, while The “puree”, on the other hand, will be for all willing to participate in the Blue.